Spring has sprung, the wind is blowing fresh from the northwest, dolphins are jumping, and the mustard grass is high. Refreshingly, the hills and dales of Malibu that were scorched to blackness by the Broad, Franklin, and Palisades Fires are now greening up nicely. Malibu and Palisades are still chaotic, but like the spring greening, some signs of normalcy are crawling from the wreckage.
Like real estate sales, in this list below, there is one “burnout” Carbon Beach property that has already sold for what some consider a bargain. We will continue to track real estate sales along with lots cleared, lots that haven’t opted in or opted out, and other numbers that show the evolution and progression of the cleaning up and reconstruction of Malibu.
These numbers were collected from Katy Macek at Caltrans, Matt Myerhoff for the City of Malibu, Erin Jimenez from the USACE, Brandi Richard Thompson for FEMA, Kent Winter from the Malibu Association of Realtors and various speakers on either side of the dias at the California Department of Insurance — Insurance Town Hall on April 2.
And other sources who wish to remain Anonymous.
We also pulled some numbers from two articles by Snejana Farberov on realtor.com: “L.A. Has Approved 4 Permits To Rebuild in Pacific Palisades After Wildfires—” from March 26 and ‘I Secured One of the First Permits To Rebuild After the L.A. Wildfires—but My Neighborhood Now Looks Like a Horror Film Set’ from April 4.
The Public Affairs Officer for the US Army Corps of Engineers Erin Jimenez came through with all the numbers we requested about trucks and opting in/out – except for Pounds of Lithium Ion batteries salvaged, encased, bathed in salt water for three days, bulldozed and dumped in Utah: “EPA was the main agency that handled all electric vehicles and battery packs.”
When asked, “What is all the sound and fury up Temescal?” Jimenez answered: “Concrete is cleaned and crushed into a smaller grade aggregate, ultimately going back into California’s construction supply system. Metal debris is separated, cleaned and bailed, then sent to recycling facilities for reuse.”
And she added: “We completed debris removal at the three schools in the City of Los Angeles we were given mission assignments for, and they were completed ahead of schedule: Marquez Charter Elementary School, Palisades Charter Elementary School, Palisades Charter High School.”
Around noon on Sunday April 6. Haylynn Conrad lightening up PCH and all the way into Palisades. There were some cleared lots along PCH and some being cleared. There were other lots in the Palisades tagged as COMPLETE. So there are signs of progress, but there’s still way more chaos than clearance. Every day, there are more than a thousand full-laden trucks rumbling down PCH and out on Malibu Canyon Road.
Spring has sprung, and summer is coming, but to quote Elton John: “I think it’s gonna be a long, long time.”
BY THE NUMBERS
0 – 5: Feet of defensible space suggested by the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety.
2-4%: Increase in market share of FAIR plan “over the last couple of years,” according ro Rob Obedoza from the California Department of Insurance. “And possibly even larger as some of those home insurance options have dried up.”
5 – 10%: FAIR Plan “Home Hardening” discounts: 5% for Protecting the Immediate Surroundings and 10% for Protecting the Structure. Applied to the Wildfire portion of the premium. Also a 10% discount for being part of a Firewise Community.
7: Days after a disaster is considered closed a pu,blic insurance adjuster can contact you to be a paid agent. Once a contract is signed, you have three days to cancel it.
7: According to the Anonymous And Coping Homeowner: It took 7 days and $79,000 – paid by FAIR Plan – for a private company to clear a 2300 square foot home from a property “in the hills. There were three guys and one bulldozer and one truck a day to pick up debris,” The AACH said, “It’s great to get property cleared and ready to move forward but the obstacles that lay ahead to rebuild seem daunting. I have no idea if the city is able to handle the volume, let alone the complexity of this unprecedented situation.
My instinct is to build a small ADU to get myself back on the land and then assess exactly how difficult and howexpensive it will be to rebuild my home . But even the idea of getting an ADU temporarily suddenly seems like it could be complicated.”
7 – 10 years: “[Gary] Lionelli estimates that it will be seven to 10 years before the Pacific Palisades is fully restored to its pre-fire state” according to that story in realtor.com. “It’s going to be seven to 10 years before it really looks like nothing happened,” he says. “Anybody who’s ever built a house, and I put myself in that category now, knows that whatever timeline somebody tells you, you have to double it and then some, and then you have to double the amount of money, or at least make it 50% more than what you thought it was going to be.”
On a more positive note, Lionelli says he is convinced that there will come a time when the January wildfires will “just be something that happened in history.” Instead of crows and black-and-white fields of debris in the Palisades, there will be birdsong and bright colors all around again.
“You won’t even have any indication or any remnants of the fire,” he says.
10 – 30%: The range that public adjusters usually charge, according to Laurie Kolb – an actuary who spoke at the Insurance Town Hall.
15: Palisades Fire burnout lots in Malibu on the market according to Kent Winter: “Currently there are 15 burnout lots which have sold and are for sale in Malibu at the moment. Twelve are for sale, two are in escrow and one has already sold (see below at $5,000,000.
There have been a few more lots listed… but some are from the ’93 fire, or just recently developed and listed. Additionally, there are some in Sunset Mesa which have been listed as being in the Palisades…
And if you are interested… here are the numbers for the Palisades: 132 are for sale, 12 are in escrow and 13 have been sold.”
32: Malibu lots that haven’t opted in or out for USACE or private debris clearance, according to Erin Jimenez.
44: Number of pages of the Onsite Wastewater Treatment System Manual: Siting, Design, Installation, and Operation Guidelines. Published by the City of Malibu on July 23, 2018
50: Five-day average of lots cleared per day in Palisades/Malibu by USACE from March 31 to April 4.
56: Most lots cleared in one day in Palisades/Malibu by the USACE.
72/135: According to realtor.com for March 26, regarding Pacific Palisades: “As of last week, 72 owners had submitted rebuilding applications to the city, and another 135 to the L.A. County Department of Public Works for rebuilding in unincorporated areas impacted by the Palisades and Eaton fires.”
155: From Matt Myerhoff, the initial rebuild appointments and site verifications since Malibu Rebuilds opened on March 10 – 12
Follow-up visits
- Architectural Plan Submittal – 6 Pending / 4 Approved
- Building Plan Check Submittal – 0 Received/ 0 Approved
- Certificate of Occupancy – 0
238: Phase Two lots cleared of debris just in Malibu by the USACE as of April 4.
241: USACE personnel on the job in the Palisades.
685: According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers CA Wildfire Debris Mission website, 685 properties in Malibu/Palisades have been signed off for Phase Two clearance, which is 5% of a total of 3,398 Rights of Entry filed so far.
<1000: Number of realtors in Malibu, according to Susan Manners: “Our current membership is just under 1000 total members (REALTORS and Affiliate Members). Not all members live in Malibu or work in brokerages located within Malibu.”
400%: Growth in the California FAIR Plan over the last four years.
$700: Rumored cost for one debris-hauling truckload. Erin Jimenez would not confirm the rumor: “It is U.S. Army Corps of Engineers policy to not discuss proprietary information such as negotiated prices for trucking operations”
1000: According to realtor.com: “Bass said on Friday (3-21) that so far, some 1,000 property owners [In Palisades] have not opted in or out of the government-run debris-removal initiative.
Failing to have all the debris removed could result in a lien being attached to a property.”
1,186: Truckloads of debris taken to multiple landfill streams on one day = April 4.
3,886: According to Hilary McLean representing California FAIR Plan: “As of April 7, the FAIR Plan has received approximately 3,886 claims for damage caused by the Palisades Fire. The FAIR Plan has paid more than $1.9 billion to policyholders, including advance payments, to cover claims related to the Palisades Fire.”
6,800: According to realtor.com: “… 6,800 homes either burned to the ground or were seriously damaged by the Palisades fire.”
$25,000 per million: It’s a $25,000 premium – per million dollars in value – to get additional insurance beyond the California FAIR Plan. According to an unidentified woman speaker at the Malibu Insurance Town Hall on April 2:
“Okay we were fortunate enough not to lose our home but we pretty much can’t get insurance right now. We had State Farm who non-renewed us. We were paying $16,000 for last year now to get full coverage it’s going to be over $100,000.
After we had State Farm and was non-renewed in December we had another non-California admitted policy who turnedaround and cancelled us after the fire because our roof was 25 years old. And they still have not refunded part of our $42,000 premium.
So we do have FAIR Plan for $3 million which doesn’t even begin to cover everything… I wonder what [is being done] to try to get California-admitted companies back into California because the insurance is just crazy for us.
To get an additional excess policy over the $3 million FAIR Plan it is more than $25,000 per million – which brings it up over $100,000 by the time you add in liability and a DIC policy which is just not… it just doesn’t… you can’t do that so I don’t know what to do as far as getting our home insured right now. We’re definitely between a rock and a hard place.”
$70,000 – $2,900,000 per mile: According to Jeff Monford at SCE: The cost difference between replacing exposed high voltage overhead wires with “covered conductor” as opposed to undergrounding electrical wires. Covered conductor also takes less time to place the lines: 16 – 24 months as opposed to 25 – 48 months for undergrounding.
According to an SCE press release from July of 2022: “A key benefit of covered conductor is the relatively fast speed at which it can be installed to achieve immediate wildfire risk reduction. That’s one of the reasons why Southern California Edison has installed 3,500 miles of overhead wire with a protective coating since it began installations in late 2018.Covered conductor reels can weigh more than 3,000 pounds and carry up to 5,000 feet of wire. Photo Credit: Roberto Lazarte “Covered conductor is a critical tool to quickly mitigate the threat of wildfires that could be caused by debris blowing into power lines. It helps keep our communities safe,” said Steve Powell, president and CEO of SCE.”
The grid hardening effort is also easing the burden on customers impacted by Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS)
. SCE is working on completing more than 50 additional circuits this year, including installing more than 150 miles of covered conductor, along with more sectionalizing devices and weather stations. On these 50 circuits, the company expects an incremental 60% reduction in PSPS outage time compared to the last two years, assuming the same weather and fuel conditions.
$81,000: Cost for the remediation of a fire-afflicted home in Palisades Highlands. On Nextdoor, SM fretted: “Desperately would love people to share remediation estimates or costs for a still standing home with no smoke damage.
I just got the bill for ours and it totaled $81k: no contents of the house were cleaned. This was to dump everything, clean floors, walls, all interior top to bottom, flush ducts, replace insulation and repaint.
Nothing chimney related
And then paint after clean. All white paint but definitely some patching from artwork, etc
Anything that would help me understand how normal (or NOT normal) this is would be helpful 🙏”
$150,000 – $200,000: Cost of a typical Advanced Onsite Water Treatment System (AOWTS), aka septic tank. According to The Hooded Engineer: “The caveat with the sewer is that Caltrans really needs to step it up and build a full seawall to protect PCH “as if” the burnout beach house owners were not to build back, before the sewer is installed. They have to do that no matter what – in my opinion.
The problem with caissons on the beach is a term called “liquefaction.” When I worked on the Tidepool project (the pool for Nobu Ryokan), we had to install x16 caissons that were 3.5-4 feet in diameter and went down 80 feet to bedrock – just for a damn pool!
The homeowners will need to spend a lot of money on those types of caissons just for the house. If they can save the cost to build the seawalls that protect the septic systems, that would be a huge relief.
A typical AOWTS (Advanced Onsite Water Treatment System) required for a beachfront property costs between $150,000 and $200,000. An individual seawall can go for $500,000, or more, depending on the layout, parcel width, etcetc.
$1,000,000: The amount Malibu Road impresario Rob Macleod believes every homeowner along PCH will save in rebuilding if his WIN/WIN proposition for PCH is followed: Underground water, gas, power and communications lines, but mostly a wastewater system that will take 200+ homes off septic: “By not having to place a septic system and a leech field and a protective wall, that will save every homeowner a million dollars.”
$2,495,000: Listing price for a five-acre property on two lots at 2401 Rambla Pacifico with great views from Third Point to the rocky mountains behind: “ACTIVE PERMIT – House burned down towards the end of a major addition. This 5-acre property on 2 separate lots has some of the best views in Malibu, including panoramic ocean views and incredible rock formations. Rare opportunity to begin construction immediately and rebuild this gorgeous modern home. New foundations, zero-edge pool, and 600 Amp electrical service are in place and likely reusable. The septic system is likely re-usable.”
4,500,000 tons: Estimate for the tons of debris that will be removed from the Palisades Fire – by USACE Colonel Swenson on 60 Minutes.
When Chat GPT was asked: “What is the total weight of debris removed after natural disasters including 9/11, the Lahaina fire, Hurricane Katrina and other earthquakes, tornadoes, tsunamis, and war zones?”
ChatGPT answered: “The total weight of debris removed after major natural disasters (and 9/11) is difficult to calculate precisely, but here are estimates for some of the biggest disasters:
100,000,000 tons: Hurricane Katrina (200,000,000,000 pounds!)
50,000,000 –100,000,000 tons: Ukraine.
30,000,000 tons: 2010 Haiti Earthquake
25,000,000 tons: Tōhoku Earthquake & Tsunami
10,000,000 – 20,000,000 tons: Gaza Strip
4,500,000 tons: Palisades Fire.
1,800,000 tons: 9/11 Attacks
1,600,000 tons: 2018 Camp Fire (California)
200,000 – 300,000 tons: Estimated for 2023 Lahaina Fire
$4,950,000: Listing price for 21540 PCH: “A burn lot that is on one of Malibu’s most coveted shorelines, La Costa Beach. The property boasts an expansive, all-sandy beachfront with a low mean tide line, perfect for enjoying the ultimate coastal lifestyle. Whether you envision building a luxurious seaside retreat or investing in a prime oceanfront location, this lot offers endless possibilities. Join the vibrant and exclusive La Costa community and bring your dream to life on this breathtaking stretch of Malibu coastline.”
$5,000,000: First recorded sale of a fire-damaged property: An 8,540 square-foot property on the ocean side of PCH at Carbon Beach.
That price is $4,000,000 to $8,000,000 less than the Zillow, Redfin and Realtor.com estimates – if they can be trusted – which ranged from $9.37 million to $13.22 million.
The Masked Realtor said: “A great deal… Carbon and La Costa will be easier to build than east of Dukes.”
While another observer said: “I heard they took the money and ran to Montecito and bought a place on the beach.”
$5,995,00: Listing for a burn out property with 53 feet of ocean frontage at “20802 PCH at Las Flores Beach, between Big Rock Dr and Las Flores Canyon Rd.” The caveatous description is not particularly welcoming:
Remarks: The lot is completely burnt out, offering a blank slate for potential development. Prospective buyers must conduct thorough due diligence in all respects. This includes, but is not limited to, investigating future entitlements, soil toxicity, potential for future sewer connections, public beach access easements and Coastal Commission entitlements andoverall suitability for building. Additionally, buyers should review the geological conditions of the property to ensure suitability for their intended development plans. Seller makes no warranties or representations as to the buildability of the site.
$5,300,000 – $10,400,000 – Couldn’t get a straight answer out of Los Angeles County Public Works over the cost to install a wastewater treatment pipeline from Carbon Beach to Topanga.
Chat GPT did give a surprisingly straight and detailed answer. No idea if this is accurate or not. If you want the details, ask Chat GPT: “What would it cost to install a 4.5 mile wastewater pipeline from Carbon Beach to Topanga?”
Those numbers – right or wrong – condensed:
Pipeline length: 4.5 miles = 23,760 feet
Capacity: ~300 homes
Average wastewater flow per home: ~250 gallons/day → total flow ≈ 75,000 gallons/day
Pipe type: HDPE or ductile iron (8” or 10” diameter likely)
- Pipeline Construction $3.6M – $5.9M
Pipe (HDPE 8 “-10” ): $100–$250 per linear foot installed
Includes excavation, materials, labor, and restoration
- Pump/Lift Stations = $M – $3M
Flat terrain can go ~1–2 miles between lift stations, depending on elevation and pressure.
Likely need 2 to 3 pumping stations at $500K – $1M each: Includes pumps, electrical, control systems, backup generator, wet well, odor control= $1M – $3M
- Design, Permitting, Environmental Review = $750K – $1.5M
Engineering + Coastal Commission + CEQA + public hearings
Estimate: 15–25% of construction costs
- Total Estimated Cost $5.35M – $10.3M
Notes
- If the terrain is favorable (e.g., a consistent downhill gradient toward Topanga), you might need only 1 pump station or even a gravity system with lift assist.
But according to one Malibu insider, the terrain is not favorable and riven with faults, landslides and other impediments. So even the $10.3 million estimate is low.
$19,500,000: Purchase price for “Carbon Oasis” paid by Robert Rivani in June of 2022. The property is just east of the former Geffen home and three properties west of the property that sold for $5,000,0000.
$20,750,000: Current listing price for Carbon Oasis: “Burnout from the Palisades fire set on 0.29 acres on desirable Carbon Beach,” according to trulia.com.
$27,000,000: Total investment in Carbon Oasis according to Realtor.com: “Real-estate investor Robert Rivani spent close to three years renovating an oceanfront mansion on Malibu’s star-studded Carbon Beach, adding a Zen garden and a sunlit infrared sauna.
The house was built around an interior courtyard with a pond, and the living spaces had limestone flooring and Onyx on the walls, along with travertine and Roman clay plaster. Including the price of the original home, the project cost close to $27 million. He had been planning to list it for $40 million this spring.
Last week, Rivani watched as the California wildfires tore the five-bedroom home apart, reducing it to rubble. “It’s catastrophic,’ he said. ‘How do you sum up losing over $20 million in 24 hours to any human being?”
$85,000,000: Sale price in 2017 of The Geffen Residence on Carbon Beach. Now burned to almost nothing. The swimming pool remains. And a hedge.
$1,900,000,000: According to Hilary McLEan representing California FAIR Plan: “As of April 7, the FAIR Plan has received approximately 3,886 claims for damage caused by the Palisades Fire. The FAIR Plan has paid more than $1.9 billion to policyholders, including advance payments, to cover claims related to the Palisades Fire.”
9,000,000,000 pounds: Yep, you read that right last time. The prediction by USACE Colonel Eric Swenson for the total weight of debris that will be removed from Palisades and Malibu — in one year, Swenson hopes.