Arnold G. York
Election Dayaround the corner
On Tuesday, we’ll all be going to the polls, unless you’re one of the 40-plus percent of California voters who cast absentee ballots (that’s another story for another day). Here is the way I see it. Most years the possible outcome of a presidential primary is fairly clear, but this year it’s all kind of muddy, exciting, but definitely muddy.
Presidential Primary
You’ve got to be a registered Republican to be voting in the Republican Primary. No independents or declined-to-states can vote in the Republican primary.
The Democrats, on the other hand, have opened up their primary to independent voters as well as registered Democrats.
Each party sets its own rules. The Dems are gambling that independents who vote in the Democratic primary will, in the main, continue to vote Democratic. The Republicans don’t want independents telling them who should be their party’s nominee.
The fallout of those party decisions affects the presidential primaries. Barack Obama probably gets a little boost because he tends to run better with the independents, whereas Hillary Clinton runs strongly in the Democratic base. Despite that, so far, she’s ahead in the California polls and appears to be holding reasonably steady, but it’s unclear how soft that lead may be and the picture could change somewhat. John Edwards appears to be in the third position, but doesn’t seem to be gaining any traction. I suspect some of his support will begin to break away unless he shows some signs of momentum soon.
On the Republican side, John McCain and Mitt Romney are locked fairly tightly, although McCain is beginning to creep ahead. Mike Huckabee will pick up some of the evangelical vote. The big surprise is Rudy Giuliani. His strategy was to stay out of the early states where he didn’t have much of a chance and go for the big states where he was stronger. The problem is that it took him out of the action for more than a month and in a race as fluid as this one, the effect was deadly and his numbers are slipping badly in several states.
Both races in California now look like two horse races.
Who should you vote for? Heck, I don’t have the remotest idea. I’m not even sure what I’m going to do, but I suspect that unless there are some clear cut decisions on Feb. 5, we may actually end up seeing a couple of old fashioned political conventions, which I think would be a good thing.
State Ballot Measures
Propositions 91(transportation measure) and 92 (community college measure) are both attempts to lock up money so the governor can’t make the cuts to balance the budget. Unfortunately, he has to make the cuts and these kinds of ballot propositions are always bad policy. One of the reasons that we are in this financial jam is because we locked up big parts of the state budget with earlier ballot propositions. It’s always bad policy to grant exemptions via the ballot box and I’d recommend a No vote on both.
Proposition 93 changes the term limits law. I think it’s a bad idea and I personally wouldn’t touch term limits. Besides, this looks to me like a move by a bunch of soon-to-be-termed-out incumbents who are trying to hang onto their jobs by changing the rules of the game. I’m voting No. Karen doesn’t agree with me. She thinks that in a few years these incumbents will be gone and then legislators will be able to spend their 12 years of service in one legislative house and that’s good. I don’t agree, but there you have it, pro and con.
Propositions 94, 95, 96 and 97
These are the amendments to the existing tribal compacts. The governor negotiated these deals with four Southern California tribes. The state gets more money and the tribes get more slot machines. The opposition comes from some northern tribes and the horse racing industry, which charges that these are a bunch of sweetheart deals and the state’s not getting enough money. The racing industry is dying and wants to get some of those slots into the tracks, but so far have had no success. Another 6 to 5, pick ’em depending on who you believe.
Measure R
To my mind, this is R like in diRty double cross, which is what the Santa Monica-Malibu Unified School District Board of Education did to Malibu. They folded to some Santa Monica pressure and cut Malibu High School’s facilities improvement money from $27.5 million down to $13.5 million. Well, we all have to vote No and defeat this parcel tax and tell them that “we’re mad as hell and we’re not going to take it any more.” If we do, and Measure R fails, I promise you that we’ll be back at the bargaining table and we’ll get our full $27.5 million dollars.