Up to Two-Thirds of SoCal Beaches May Disappear by 2100, USGS Predicts

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Malibu’s Civic Center, according to the map projections during a 20-year storm with sea level rise at 175 centimeters

The disappearance of sand from Malibu’s Broad Beach might just be the beginning of a trend over the next 83 years. In a new study released on March 27, 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) predicts that 31 to 67 percent of Southern California’s beaches may be completely eroded away by the year 2100, based on sea level rise of one to two meters. Once the sand is gone, exposed bedrock may be all that’s left. 

The USGS arrived at this conclusion using a newly developed computer model called “CoSMoS-COAST” (Coastal Storm Modeling System – Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool) — a numerical model that takes sea level rise into account as well as changing storm patterns driven by climate change. The model also considers sand transport both along the beach and across the beach, historical shorelines and slope. 

Scientists are confident of the results because the model was able to accurately reproduce the historical shoreline changes between 1995 and 2010.

The effect of no more sandy beaches would affect tourism in Southern California, and expose homes and businesses to greater damage from storms. There is also speculation — furthered by a recent story published in The Hollywood Reporter — it could harm Malibu real estate sales on the ocean side of PCH, though local Realtor and The Malibu Times columnist Rick Wallace said such speculation is unfounded.

“Thus far, climate change or the threat of global warming has had zero effect on the Malibu real estate market,” Wallace wrote in an email to The Malibu Times. “Particularly for beachfront real estate, which remains extremely capped in supply and very desirable, it has not affected prices at all. As for Malibu properties off the beach, they have become more desirable and more expensive on their own merits.”

“Beaches are natural resources, and it is likely that human management efforts must increase in order to preserve them,” said lead author of the study, Sean Vitousek, now a professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago, in a statement released with the model. 

That means Broad Beach, in its effort to bring in 600,000 cubic feet of sand replenishment, has the right idea if beaches are to be preserved. 

“This study indicates that we will have to perform massive and costly interventions to preserve these beaches in the future under the erosive pressures of anticipated sea level rise, or risk losing many of the economic and protective benefits beaches provide,” said USGS geologist and coauthor, Patrick Barnard.

“The public already has to overcome obstacles in getting to the beach, from limited public transportation to illegally blocked pathways,” said California Coastal Commission Executive Director John Ainsworth in a USGS press release. “The prospect of losing so many our beaches in Southern California to sea level rise is frankly unacceptable. The beaches are our public parks and economic heart and soul of our coastal communities. We must do everything we can to ensure that the iconic California coast is preserved for future generations.”

Exactly one week after the USGS study was released; The Hollywood Reporter came out with this headline: “Global Warming Fears Are Driving Malibu Home Buyers to Higher Ground.” The article claimed that “Beach buyers including Brad Pitt and Lady Gaga are moving on up (literally) and over to the once-unimaginable side of the PCH for not only more privacy but rising sea level fears: ‘The smaller the beach gets at Broad Beach, the bigger the numbers are going to get’ on the bluffs.”

The article quotes a local Realtor: “’The whole ‘being on the beach’ thing has started to fade away in Malibu because of global warming and climate change,’ says Sotheby’s International agent Anthony Paradise [to The Hollywood Reporter]. ‘Some people will buy on the land side because they’re fearful that ocean-side homes may disappear.’ [Another agent, Santiago] Arana sees a new market rising amid those concerns. ‘The smaller the beach gets at Broad Beach, the bigger the numbers are going to get here [in Malibu Park],’ he says, adding, ‘Right now, prices are starting to move into the $15 to $20 million range. Some of that has to do with the fact that, in the last five years, people have started looking at beachfront differently.’ Arana, along with Mauricio Umansky, sold Lady Gaga her 10,000-square-foot villa for $23 million in 2014.”

Wallace said the idea sea level rise is affecting Malibu real estate prices is coming half a century too soon.

“Rising ocean levels may start pushing up prices on the landside in 2080,” he wrote. “It is not a factor now.”