Oh my God, here comes Newt
Newt Gingrich? They’ve got to be kidding – at least that was my first reaction. Like any good Democrat, I’ve been watching the Republican battle for the nomination with a combination of fascination and bemusement. I can’t help but feel that most of them belong to the “not quite ready for prime time players.” But still, when Obama first appeared on the scene, no one gave him much of a chance, particularly against a well-organized, well-funded, well-vetted Clinton Democratic election steamroller, and we all know what happened there.
Is 2012 a replay of 2008 or is it something completely different? Sometimes trying to handicap a race, whether horse or political, you have to go back to basics so here’s my Democratic, totally biased take on the race to date.
In presidential elections, both primary and general, there are certain basics you have to keep sight. First and foremost, it’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon.
As in any long-distance race, someone will suddenly sprint ahead for awhile and then usually just slip back into the pack. For a while Bachmann broke from the pack. She was aided by the fact that there were very low expectations for her and many just thought her a kook. It turned out she was smarter than many realized, had a good turn of phrase and a strong media sense about how to get her message across. Her problem is her base is too small and her message too noninclusive, and now she’s running 5%-10%.
Next, Rick Perry became the flavor of the month primarily because he was a long-term sitting Governor, came from a big state, seemed able to raise large amounts of money, had great Presidential hair and sort of looked like he was sent by Central Casting. It turned out that he simply wasn’t the sharpest knife in the drawer and couldn’t keep his foot out of his mouth. His moment came and went and now he’s under 10%.
Then Herman Cain broke out and for a while he looked very interesting. Conservatives loved him. He had a blunt way of speaking, which served him well, wasn’t always up on the issues or the facts, which the conservatives were willing to forgive, but he also had a bit of a zipper problem, which they apparently were not willing to forgive-so exit Mr. Cain. Everyone waited to see where his supporters would go and the current answer pretty clearly appears to be Newt.
Now no one can deny that Newt is one piece of work. He’s had more lives than the average cat, and always seems to bounce back. In the beginning of the campaign he went off on vacation and many of his staffers counted him out and just quit. No one took him seriously until the others kept self-destructing. Now that we are about to enter the primary season-in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida-Newt’s timing may be perfect, sort of riding the crest of the wave just as it breaks. Newt’s got a number of pluses. He’s very bright, very articulate, has a sense of how to communicate in a nuanced way, has a nice sense of humor and has done rather well in the debates. He’s also got a number of very big minuses. He’s got more skeletons in his closet than the average medical school, has not been very nice to his women, has a strong taste for the good life and has never tried to hide it, doesn’t have anywhere near the money that Romney has and has raised, a lot of people are afraid of him and don’t trust him, and that’s just counting the Republicans. He probably could handle most of those things but for his one major problem-Newt can be his own worst enemy. He is a man given to grandiosity and in the past has often self-destructed. Newt is now portraying himself as the new Newt, and perhaps he is, but I’m a bit skeptical.
As for the rest of the field-Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Jon Huntsman-they have not moved much although Ron Paul has a very consistent and loyal base and could be a Republican problem if he ran as an independent.
That leaves the big question and that’s Mitt Romney. It doesn’t seem to matter what he does but he never seems to draw much more then 20%-25%; still, he’s got a lot of pluses. He’s experienced and calm on the election trail. His operation appears well-organized and well-funded and has not made a lot of mistakes. He has personal money and an ability to raise money, and clearly he knows that this race is a marathon and not a sprint. The difficult problem for him now is timing. Newt’s riding the wave and has momentum and the primaries are coming. If Newt wins the primaries, but Romney does credibly and then just stays the course, the chances are that somewhere along the line Newt will begin to self-destruct, or at least that’s his history. Newt is way behind in money and organization but that could change. Romney’s big weakness simply is that most Republicans don’t particularly like him. In a recent poll, 60% of the Republicans thought Romney was moderate or liberal whereas the majority of the Republican Party says they are conservatives. The party is much more conservative than their potential candidate but the overall electorate, particularly the independents, tend to be moderate. The question remains-will the Republican conservatives vote with their heart or their head? And at this point that’s something none of us knows.