Real estate twin years
Median holding at near $3 million
Mothers have twins. There are cities in Minnesota called twins. Even towers can be twins.
Can two years be twins? Through the first six months of 2007, it appears this year is the twin of last year. In every key statistical category, Malibu real estate this year is mirroring the results of 2006.
In June, for example, the inventory of homes on the market stood at 195 mid-month. Last year, on the same date, the inventory was 193. Last year, the median price of all sales was $2,850,000. This year, after six months, it is the same. Prices are essentially unchanged from last year.
The two statistics are related. The key to our local marketplace is that, contrary to other struggling areas, the number of homes for sale is relatively slight. The number of sales is down, but buyers are not finding greatly expanded selection, and thus the deals that find completion do so at solid prices.
Not that undernourished siblings are anything to brag about. Sales have been very slow both years. If anything, the present year is a bit plumper. The number of sales through June was 94, on a pace to top last year’s total of about 174 for the entire year. Perhaps more notably, the pace of sales has been quickening the past three months. Only 33 sales for 2007 were reported in the March 29 edition of The Malibu Times; slow for even that time of year. The pace has hastened.
The market is far from hot, but a trend of more sales, particularly at lower prices, could bring the sales units to 200. That is for single-family homes in the 90265 Zip Code. The best of recent years was in 2000 when 348 homes sold. Only one year from 1998 to 2004 saw sales less than 300 units. So 2007 will be poor in this regard, no matter what.
The other change from the first quarter is the lower priced properties are selling more proportionately to high priced properties. Those 33 sales through March had a median just more than $3 million. With more “standard” Malibu homes selling lately, the median has softened slightly and may yet show a slight drop for the year. This has been anticipated all along, particularly in an environment of scarce sales.
Volume of all 90265 sales of one to four units, almost entirely single-family homes, was about $738 million last year. This year, it was $420 million at mid-year. As a result, the average sale price had increased from about $4.24 million in 2006 to $4.47 million this year, thanks to more sales above $5 million, though the median was unchanged.
Within the industry, the chill of the market is felt, and perhaps some retribution for many fruitful years is in order. A total of $1.3 billion in Malibu homes is currently listed. (That translates to more than $6 million per listing, and a median list price currently of $4.2 million, nearly 50 percent above an actual sales median of $2.85 million.) Significantly, however, more than $250 million in listings are with agents based outside Malibu.
Of the billion dollars listed at Malibu offices, one agent has captured 20 percent of the market and five agents account for about half the local listing volume currently. With nearly 300 agents active in Malibu (and two new companies recently opening for business), competing for the other half of the listing volume, lean times are being felt. Condo, mobile home, land and leasing business hasn’t been particularly good either.
At mid-July, the inventory reached 201 homes, again about the same as last year. In 2006, August saw 211 listings, the peak for the year, which diminished to 150 by December. The path of the inventory this year has been almost exactly the same as last year, just as the sales and prices have been similar. During the miserable years of 1991 – 1996, by comparison, inventory was well more than 300 homes for sale.
The proportion of beach sales to land side sales has been slightly better during 2007. This year also tallies slightly better than average sales prices for both beach and land side homes (the majority of Malibu homes that do not have direct deeded beach access).
The bottom line is that Malibu has been fortunate price wise. Many of the flood of new buyers in the busy 2000-2005 years have settled in. Few are those that need to sell their homes-and prices hold. In the best of times, more than 300 homes were selling per year. In the worst of times, more than 300 homes were listed at one time. Malibu is far from either scenario in 2007.
Rick Wallace of the Coldwell Banker Company has been a Realtor in Malibu for 19 years. He can be reached at his web site, www.RICKMALIBUrealestate.com