The proponents of Measure M are telling us that it would result in much less development than if we allowed the MBC properties to be developed one-by-one. The opponents are telling us that M would bring more development. Here is what I think the numbers tell me.
Trancas: Development gets reduced from a maximum potential under current zoning of 9 homes and 48,166 square feet. of commercial space to a guaranteed 20 homes and 33,261 square feet. of commercial space with some of the land left vacant. Without more knowledge of the site constraints, this is just about what I would have expected had the Trancas area development been negotiated on its own without regard to the rest of Malibu.
Pt. Dume: This site has been controversial. Access problems make it difficult to develop. If the City is able to purchase the Chili Cook-off site, MBC appears to get the right to develop this site despite the problems. If the City is not able to purchase the Chili Cook-off site, the Pt. Dume site becomes a park. However, over half of the development which could have occurred at Pt. Dume is transferred to the Chili Cook-off site.
Civic Center: Under either scenario, 46,754 square feet. of possible commercial development at Winter Canyon and the Smith property are traded for an additional 32,289 square feet. of development on the Ioki, Island and St. John’s properties. If the City is able to raise the $25 million to purchase the Chili Cook-off site, we get open space in place of commercial development. MBC gets its full build-out of Pt. Dume. MBC and the other land owners in the Civic Center get a sewage treatment plant which relieves them of the burden of disposing of their own sewage on-site. However, no one has been able to tell me where the $25 million will come from. This makes it probable that the city does not purchase the Chili site. In this case, in exchange for the Pt. Dume property, the 98,777 square feet. of new development currently allowed on the Chili site is increased to 155,646 square feet. – an increase of 56,869 square feet. (almost 60%!).
I believe that the Trancas and Civic Center deals (without the Chili property) are the kind of thing which would be done in any event in the course of approving development and that they are probably at least as favorable to MBC as any deal the company is likely to get on these properties. If I am right about this, everything really boils down to two properties: the Chili property and the Pt. Dume property.
If someone is willing to give the poor people of Malibu $25 million to buy the Chili site, we would be able to trade a potential shopping center for a sewage plant and open space at the likely expense of more development on Pt. Dume than probably would have been approved, and some additional development in the Civic Center area now served by the new sewage plant. If we do not raise the money, we will get ball fields and a Community Center at Pt. Dume in exchange for 60% more new development at the Chili site. Either way, in the end, the biggest impact is likely to be less on the amount of development than on the nature of the development process. The Agreement grants virtually all of the necessary concessions up-front. This should make the build-out process much more automatic, with less discretionary control over the individual projects as they unfold. “Yes” on M.
Jonathan Seybold