10 years of good news is threatened
By Rick Wallace / Special to The Malibu Times
Only about 33 homes have sold in Malibu this year, as the month of March comes to a close. The pace is ominous, similar to the dark days of 1991-1996 when prices in Malibu stayed flat. Last year was the slowest year in the last 10 for the number of sales. This year could be lower.
Though the sampling is still sparse, the indicators of price defy gravity and continue to go up. The early warning system of the first quarter of 2007 has the median price topping $3 million, better than last year. More than one-third of sales have been at $5 million or more in Malibu this year.
In a market that makes little sense, huge sales continue while the core of the market feels flat. Only three homes have sold in Malibu for less than $2 million this year, though 26 are listed for sale at this writing. While 60 homes languish on the market between $2 – 4 million now, only 16 have sold in that range thus far. The big sales this year, like last year, skew the averages upward while the majority of home sellers feel a scarcity of buyers.
Why dwell on the present when there is such a glorious past? The above chart reveals the amazing 10-year rise in real estate prices throughout Malibu. Figures represent residences of one to four units, almost entirely single-family homes, and exclude condominiums and mobile homes, all in areas that have the 90265 Zip Code. Topanga, Monte Nido and Agoura homes are excluded.
The information has been meticulously collected over the years from a multitude of sources, particularly the local multiple listing service, but many other public and private sources, also, and include some approximations of sale prices in secret, unlisted arms-length transactions of every price range. Some groupings contain neighborhoods that have geographical or architectural similarities, but slightly different values. With relatively small samplings, variations are typical, except for one inescapable fact: the overall trend, despite fits and starts in every neighborhood, is dramatically upward.
In total, 2,854 home sales have transpired in Malibu during the period, involving 2,082 residences, about half the homes that exist in the 90265 Zip Code. The overall volume has been roughly $6.25 billion. The median, ensconced near the $700,000 level from 1990 to 1996 with little variation, increased four-fold to $2.8 million last year as all ten of the past years saw an increase in the average sales price and/or the median price.
Rick Wallace of the Coldwell Banker Company has been a Realtor in Malibu for 19 years. He can be reached at his Web site, www.RICKMALIBUrealestate.com