Malibu has been under a Red Flag fire warning for more than a week, but with so much meteorological mumbo jumbo it’s easy to put up a white flag and surrender all hope of ever making sense of fire weather forecasts.
The Red Flag Weather Program is a cooperative fire prevention patrol and public awareness program conducted by local, state and federal fire service agencies. Its purpose is to increase preparedness levels in anticipation of Red Flag weather based on the four stages of the “Firescope” Red Flag Weather Program.
To begin, Red Flag weather is determined by the following criteria: winds of 25 mph or more, humidity of 15 percent or less, and a burning index of 81 or greater. Such conditions are used as a guide in calling a Red Flag Alert.
Stage One of the Red Flag Program is “Fire Weather Watch.” It is called 48-72 hours in advance of a Red Flag Alert and has a 30 percent chance of developing into a Red Flag Alert.
Stage Two is a “Red Flag Warning” and is called 24 hours in advance of a Red Flag Alert. It has a 90 percent chance of developing into such an alert.
Stage three is the “Red Flag Alert,” and depending on the breadth of area affected it can be a Limited Red Flag Alert or a General Red Flag Alert. At this stage, several actions may be taken by the L.A. County Fire Department including canceling existing fire permits, assembling additional staff and preparing Copter 10 (the command ship helicopter) to be placed on standby.
Finally, Stage Four is Cancellation of the Red Flag Alert. A meteorologist at the Operations Coordination Center in Riverside calls this stage once the threat has passed.