It’s showtime in Michigan
As we seem to be narrowing down to some sort of a resolution in the Republican primary this Tuesday afternoon, the contenders are beginning to shift strategies. Typically, no campaign ever admits they are changing strategy, and in fact, they’re loath to admit that they even have a strategy. Most just fall back on the well overused phrase “we just want to get out our message,” and of course that message is always “resonating with the voting public”.
The truth is that they are all constantly polling, “focus grouping” their language, watching the flow of campaign dollars as a sign of public acceptance, and subtly changing their message as they pick up shifts in the public likes and dislikes.
Michigan is a very important state to both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, probably more so to Romney because he’s got a lot more to lose. Michigan is his home state, and his Daddy was a three-term governor and strongly associated with the auto industry. If Romney loses here it may be an indication to many Republicans that the wheels are coming off the trolley and they better start hedging their bets and looking for somebody new.
It was pretty clear from the get-go that Romney was the only candidate from the entire existing Republican field that could possibly win in the general election, but first he had to get the nomination, and so far he simply has not been able to close the deal. So he’s faced with this dilemma. He’s probably acceptable to most of the country, and most importantly that includes the 11% to 15% of voting population who are independents or declined to state who ultimately decide the presidency. But it’s become painfully obvious that the Republican base, which is very conservative and quite evangelical, just doesn’t trust him because they view him as a Massachusetts moderate. His problem is that he really is a Massachusetts moderate, which is exactly the kind of Republican that has a chance of possibly winning the general election, provided he can get past the Republican primary.
Romney has stuck to his “native son” game plan in Michigan because there isn’t much else that he can do. His real downside is he was very publically against the auto bailout and no one is sure how that’s going to play. Santorum was also against the bailout, but less publically so. A lot of Romney’s chances will depend on who shows up at the polls today and probably, strangely enough how the Democrats vote. Michigan has an open primary and Democrats, Republicans and Independents all get to vote for the Republican candidate.
Now the strategies. It’s becoming apparent that Romney has cut some sort of deal with Ron Paul. In the last few debates, and then some, Paul has been all over Santorum. Ultimately, Paul will try to deliver his base to Romney. Whether he can do it and what he gets in return is not yet clear. I would guess that Romney, if elected, will carry some very Libertarian planks into his policies.
Santorum’s strategy for now is to derail Romney, break his momentum and emerge as the front-runner, and to do that he’s taking some very risky positions. His attack on the 1960 JFK speech on the issue of the separation of church and state is gutsy, and to my mind politically dangerous. He didn’t just say that he disagreed, he said that JFK’s speech to the Protestant Ministers made him want to vomit. When you say nasty things about an assassinated president you’re taking a big risk. I have to believe that it was well thought out and discussed before he said it. He and his people must believe that it’s worth the risk, because if they can get the Evangelicals out in force and win Michigan, they can really hurt Romney. There is time afterward to repair the damage about his JFK remarks, later on with softer language.
Santorum is also beginning to sound a much more populist, blue collar, son of working man kind of a theme. What I would guess is their polling is picking up a Romney weakness among working class Catholics, and their hesitation about his being rich, as well as unease with his Mormon faith. Their computer runs must show that if they can get both the Evangelicals and the Catholics out they can take Romney in Michigan, so a big risk is worth taking.
As for Gingrich, I doubt that he will play much of a roll in Michigan. I’m guessing that both he and Ron Paul will get their typical percentages, maybe a trifle less.
But if Romney stalls, and Santorum’s hard ball campaigning produces dangerously high negatives, the party leaders are going to desperately start looking for some new candidates to get behind at the convention in August. There is no golden rule that says that the primaries have to mean anything, and if all of the current candidates end up totally beaten up, then an entirely new game may begin in August with a new cast of characters.
P.s. As we go to press the returns are coming in from Michigan and it looks like Romney is going to beat Santorum by four or five percentage points. That’s not exactly an overwhelming victory for Romney but enough to keep him going and avoids an embarrassing defeat in his home state. We won’t know what it really means until the computers break down the results which should take a day or two.