Below is our annual ballot where readers can make their choices on who they think the winners will be in this year’s Oscar race. For those who have no idea, or need a little help in making their choice, writer Andrew Lyons gives some tips.
By Andrew Lyons/Special to The Malibu Times
It’s time. You’ve been waiting all year for this moment. Okay, maybe not, but you saw the movies. Okay, you saw a few of them. And on Feb. 29, you get to experience the cathartic pleasure-or pain-that only comes from joining about 45 million people in collective shock as “insert unexpected winner here” picks up an Academy Award. In an effort to limit the pain of surprise, we’ve talked to industry insiders to determine the most likely winners in the five most prominent categories. Also included are picks for who most deserves to take the little guy home. Consider it your personal crib sheet.
Best Supporting Actress
Shohreh Aghdashloo-“House of Sand and Fog”
Patricia Clarkson-“Pieces of April”
Marcia Gay Harden-“Mystic River”
Holly Hunter-“Thirteen”
Renee Zellweger-“Cold Mountain”
Although seemingly a no-brainer this year, Best Supporting Actress is a category that has surprised on more than one occasion. Marisa Tomei anyone? Clarkson is finally getting recognized for years of stellar work. Hunter is heart-rending as a mom confronting a teenage daughter spinning out of control. Harden doesn’t screech as much as she did in her Oscar-winning Pollock performance but she still over-emotes as a suspicious wife. Aghdashloo, a relative unknown, holds her own with Oscar-winners Ben Kingsley and Jennifer Connelly, even as her character sinks under the weight of her husband’s dreams. But most industry professionals are picking Zellweger to win, in part because of her lively, brassy (maybe too brassy) performance, in part because of her previous nominated performances in “Chicago” and “Bridget Jones’s Diary.”
Will win: Zellweger
Should win: Aghdashloo
Best Supporting Actor
Alec Baldwin-“The Cooler”
Benicio del Toro-“21 Grams”
Djimon Hounsou-“In America”
Tim Robbins-“Mystic River”
Ken Watanabe-“The Last Samurai”
Del Toro, despite his scarily effective turn as a born-again ex-con, is probably hurt by his recent victory in this category. Hounsou is lucky to have been nominated at all and Baldwin will probably have to settle for being on this list, even though he turns what could have been a casino boss cliché into a real person. Insiders agree that, despite Watanabe’s powerful performance, this is probably Robbins’ year. He is universally respected and he’s painfully affecting as a grown man haunted by childhood abuse.
Will win: Robbins
Should win: Several are deserving, but Baldwin is the best of the bunch.
Best Actress
Keisha Castle-Hughes-
“Whale Rider”
Diane Keaton-
“Something’s Gotta Give”
Samantha Morton-“In America”
Charlize Theron-“Monster”
Naomi Watts-“21 Grams”
Castle-Hughes’ surprise nomination will have to be enough for the 13-year-old. Same for Morton, whose role is more supporting than lead. Watts and Theron may split the “beautiful actress getting scuzzy” vote, leaving Keaton to take home the trophy. Insiders are split between the graceful charm of Keaton and the stunning intensity of Theron as a serial killer. In the end, the pure power of Theron’s performance will likely win out.
Will win: Theron
Should win: The brave, brutal Theron
Best actor
Johnny Depp-“Pirates of the Carribean: The Curse of the Black Pearl”
Ben Kingsley-“House of Sand and Fog”
Jude Law-“Cold Mountain”
Bill Murray-“Lost in Translation”
Sean Penn-“Mystic River”
Jude Law is a great actor and he will eventually win an Oscar, but not this year. Depp’s wacky pirate Jack Sparrow is a wonderfully creative concoction but the fun stops here. Ben Kingsley is as controlled as Depp is wild and in most years, he’d be a frontrunner. But Hollywood seems to be placing its bets on a Murray-Penn faceoff. Both are great in their roles. Both have been snubbed for past deserving work. There seems to be a tad more support for Penn’s devastated father than for Murray’s sad, fading movie star.
Will win: Penn
Should win: A tough call, but Murray
Best Picture
“The Lord of the Rings:
The Return of the King”
“Lost in Translation”
“Master and Commander:
The Far Side of the World”
“Mystic River”
“Seabiscuit”
“Seabiscuit’s” nomination is more of a comment on quality marketing than great moviemaking. “Master” is out of its depth. “Mystic River” is getting respect but insiders doubt that will translate into votes. “Translation” is the best individual movie of the year, but this is the year of the Rings.
Will win: “Rings”
Should win: “Rings,” in recognition for the crowning achievement of all three films.
Now that we’ve angered pretty much every one of you, the real fun can begin. Discuss among yourselves. You know you want to.