A state-funded study released this week predicts potentially major economic losses for Malibu in the next century due to sea level rise. Based on a prediction that sea level will rise by 4.6 feet along the California coast between now and 2100, economists at San Francisco State University projected that Malibu’s economy could be hit to the tune of more than $600 million due to flooding, loss of habitat and recreation areas and reduced tourism due to narrower, eroded beaches.
“Sea level rise will send reverberations throughout local and state economies,” Philip King, an associate professor of economics at San Francisco State University who led the study, said. “We also found that the economic risks and responses to a changing coastline will vary greatly over time and from beach to beach.”
Funded by the California Department of Boating and Waterways, the study examined the costs of coastal storm damage and erosion, which are expected to escalate as sea levels rise. It also forecasted the economic effect of sea level rise on tourism and natural habitats, predicting that beaches that are narrowed by erosion will draw fewer visitors.
Malibu was one of five communities examined during the study.
In addition to mean sea level rise, the study also factored in the economic impact of extreme flooding, which is expected to increase in coming decades. According to a press release by San Francisco State University about the study, coastlines already face the risk of low-probability coastal storms such as 100-year floods. However, the rise in sea levels is expected to push the floods farther inland and cause greater damage to homes, businesses and public infrastructure.
If sea levels rise by 4.6 feet in the next 90 years, the study predicts specific damage to Broad Beach and Zuma Beach. The losses include, according to the press release:
-$28.5 million in damage caused by a 100-year coastal flood damaging homes, commercial buildings and contents.
-$498.7 million in tourism spending and local and state tax revenue losses (accumulated between now and 2100) caused by narrower, eroded beaches attracting fewer visitors.
-$102.3 million in habitat and recreation losses caused by erosion reducing the beach area.
The press release states that the economists arrived at the results primarily through the use of secondary data, which it calls “an approach allowed them to calculate the economic impact of sea level rise at a fraction of the cost and time taken to complete the more commonly used shoreline hazard assessments.”
King expressed hope that the findings would impact the way coastal communities planned ahead in the coming years.
“Understanding the kind of impact sea level rise will have is important for deciding what adaptive action to take,” King said. “Seawalls have become the de facto policy for dealing with erosion and sea level rise but our findings suggest that other policies such as beach nourishment or where possible, allowing the coastline to retreat, could be more cost effective.”