After countless debates, dozens of television commercials, thousands of campaign mailers and nearly $2 million in campaign expenditures, few are willing to predict the winner of the 41st Assembly District’s Democratic primary-except the candidates themselves.
Max Taves / Special to the Times
Five Democratic candidates are running to replace termed out Assemblymember Fran Pavley, a Democrat. The district, which runs along the coast from Santa Monica to Oxnard and along the valley from Newbury Park to Encino, has historically elected Democratic candidates to state and federal office.
The Democrat who wins next Tuesday’s primary is expected to win in the November Assembly race against the Republican candidate.
With few ideological differences to distinguish themselves, candidates have emphasized their personal biographies and key endorsements.
Julia Brownley is the president of the Santa Monica-Malibu Unified School District or SMMUSD. She worked in marketing before becoming a school board member and is a Santa Monica resident. State Sen. Sheila Kuehl and Assemblymember Fran Pavley have endorsed her. Brownley also secured the endorsements of the Democratic Party, the League of Conservation Voters and the Malibu Democratic Club.
Barry Groveman is a former environmental lawyer and a current Calabasas city council member. This year, Groveman made international headlines when he and the Calabasas City Council passed legislation that curbed the use of cigarettes in public areas. Groveman was the co-author of the failed Proposition 65, the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic enforcement Act of 1986. He has received the endorsements of U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, Superintendent of Pubic Instruction Jack O’Connell, Assemblymember Paul Koretz and Malibu Mayor Ken Kearsley.
Kelly Hayes-Raitt is the City Women’s Commissioner of Santa Monica and a longtime community activist. Hayes-Raitt was a co-founder of Heal the Bay. She traveled to Iraq twice and has been vocal in opposing the war there. The Sierra Club, Martin Sheen, Ed Begley, and the Los Angeles and Ventura chapters of the National Women’s Political Caucus have endorsed her.
Jonathan Levey, a teacher at Cal State Channel Islands and real estate lawyer based in Santa Monica, was a political newcomer when he entered this race. He recently wrote a book entitled “Ideas in Action” to explain his positions on the district’s main issues. He has received the endorsements of Congressmen Mel Levine, the California Organization of Police and Sheriffs, the San Fernando Valley Young Democrats, the Los Angeles Times and L.A. Weekly.
Shawn Casey O’Brien is a radio talk show host and an activist for the disabled. He lives in Santa Monica and hosts “Access Unlimited,” a radio show on KPFK 90.7 FM. O’Brien has been endorsed by Ron Kovic, an antiwar activist and author, Marty Omoto, executive director of the California Disability Action Network, and Marcy Winograd, president of the Progressive Democrats of Los Angeles.
In this competitive race for votes, the race for campaign contributions has been no less fierce. Groveman leads with more than $600,000. Groveman has loaned himself nearly $200,000. Levey has raised approximately $500,000. Brownley and Hayes-Raitt are virtually tied with a little more than $200,000. O’Brien has not received enough contributions to have to disclose. Hayes-Raitt and O’Brien accepted state spending limits.
With large campaign war chests, four of the five candidates have aggressively spent money to woo support. Groveman has spent more than $900,000 on his campaign. That is double his nearest rival. Television ads have consumed more than $400,000 of that amount and campaign consultants have cost him approximately $280,000.
Groveman’s costly focus on television has meant less money on campaign literature and mailings. Brownley, Levey and Hayes-Raitt have outspent him on mail.
Brownley entered the race as the frontrunner with the support of popular incumbents Pavley and Kuehl. But in terms of campaign contributions, she has lagged considerably behind Levey and Groveman throughout the campaign.
If the 2000 primary is any guide, money will not decide this race. Pavley was outspent 4 to 1 in her campaign. She narrowly won the race.
Although the winner of the Democratic primary is expected to easily defeat the Republican challenger in the November general election, there are still two Republicans entered in the race. Tony Dolz is a legal Hispanic immigrant who has focused his campaign on securing the nation’s borders from illegal immigration. The other candidate, Adriana Van Hemert, is a Dutch native with a doctorate in psychology, who has worked for several years with the elderly, families and children.