So where are we now?
Like many of you, I spent several nights watching the two conventions, really more like coronations then conventions, and came away with the feeling that this has all degenerated into show business for the not-quite-as-pretty-as-Hollywood people. At the rate this is all going, the next election cycle is probably going to be Cirque du Soleil putting on an extravaganza, with the candidate sliding down a rope.
Still, despite all the hoopla and the show biz baloney, there were some real moments and some real points of differentiation between the two parties.
We went into the conventions with the country still pretty much split down the middle. Romney had picked up a little ground in the week before the RNC because the undecideds were beginning to decide and, as usually happens with the late undecideds, they tend to go more with the challenger than the incumbent. But surprisingly, the Republican convention didn’t provide Romney with much of a bump, and nothing changed much.
Next, the Democrats had their convention and it appeared to energize their troops, and after it was over Obama’s numbers began to rise. It’s hard to know exactly how much he has risen, but he looks to be up about 3 to 5%, depending on which poll you believe. The lead will probably slide back somewhat in the next few weeks, but the direction and momentum are clear. If the Republicans don’t do something new that resonates with the electorate, Obama wins.
It seems to me that the Republicans made a couple of mistakes. First, they assumed that Romney had an image problem. I don’t think that’s the case at all. I suspect most Americans, Democrats and Republicans, believe Romney is a decent guy, a smart guy, an able leader and a good family man. What they don’t believe is that he can understand their problems, what it’s like to get by on a shrinking budget, to feel their job insecurity and their worry that their children will do less well than they did, and to be willing to do something about it.
The second and even bigger mistake they made is they held a rock solid belief that no incumbent could get reelected with unemployment over 8%. There was ample historical evidence for that belief. Their plan was to keep it all focused on the economy because they knew that Obama couldn’t get that unemployment below 8%, which to their minds meant Obama was toast. It was a perfectly rational and reasonable strategy that the incumbent gets credit if things are good and gets blamed if the economy is bad. The only problem is that it doesn’t seem to be working. The economic numbers have been at best mediocre, but people don’t seem to be blaming Obama, at least not enough to kick him out of office. This, I believe, is due in no small measure to the fact that we are all a lot more politically and economically sophisticated than we used to be. The public understands that we have just come through the deepest and longest recession since the depression of the 1930s, and it’s probably got a few more years to run. The stock market, the corporations and the 1% have all come out of the recession probably stronger and richer now than before. The rest of us are still in the doldrums. Our net worth has dropped primarily because of the real estate bust, and incomes have not moved. We kind of have the feeling that if the Republicans get in and raise the economy, we’re still not going to see much of that increase because its going to go to that same stock market, corporations and the 1%.
So there is Romney’s dilemma. What should be working is just not working that well, and without a game shift he loses. I’m beginning to hear talk of the October surprise, but you hear that in every Presidential race when one side begins to sputter, but you can’t rule it out totally. Netanyahu is making noises like he plans to attack Iran and soon, or at least to back the U.S. into a political corner. I don’t see it working, or him committing what would be, to me, Israeli political suicide, but that’s for another column.
Perhaps the debates can change the direction, although that’s seldom the case. So when it’s all over, the race will depend on old fashioned politics. In the final analysis, polls don’t matter unless you can actually get people out to vote. There is going to be a gigantic get-out-the-vote campaign. There is going to be a lot of dirty business at the polls in some states, particularly those with voter ID laws, and I’m fearful it’s going to get very nasty, and probably violent in many places, before this is all over. But come November, it will finally be over.