Well, it’s finally coming to a close. Next week, we all go to the polls, which is not totally accurate since almost half of us vote by mail. For all we know, the election may have already been decided by those absentee ballots, we just don’t know the results yet. It’s kind of strange. In a world where people are clamoring for the right to vote, we can barely get the citizens of Malibu to fill out their mail ballots and drop them in the mailbox.
People have been asking me about whom I think will win but, truthfully, I have no idea. It’s easier to get a sense when people are running for office, but a ballot measure is somewhat more ethereal. Since there is only one issue on the ballot — Measure W — and no other election contests, I suspect that the winner will be the side that turns out more of the faithful at the polls. In the last few years, Malibu has had a decent record on voter turnout (at least by L.A. standards), but not great
You may recall about a year ago we had the Reiner-backed Measure R, which passed when 56.2 percent of the voters voted “yes,” which then gave us — the voters — the right to vote on projects over a certain size. The current Measure W (the Whole Foods project) is a project over that minimum size, which is why we get to vote on it.
If the vote is “yes,” then the project can proceed to be built, subject, however, to the caveat that there could always be a lawsuit to try and block it. However, generally, if the voters approve a project, the courts are not going to interfere.
Suppose the vote is “no.” Does that mean the project will never be built? That is a much more complicated legal question for which I suspect there is no short answer, which I know frustrates some of you. There are a number of vacant parcels in the Civic Center area that are zoned commercial and are designated both in the Local Coastal Plan and Malibu General plan as set aside for commercial development. However, do we have the right to say we simply don’t want it, and we don’t care what the arguments are for and against? Can we say that? The answer is probably yes, but then what happens next? That is the big question. By saying “no,” have we in effect agreed to buy the land or, alternatively, can they force us to buy the land?
What’s unique about Malibu is that there are a number of parcels in the Civic Center that are zoned commercial and are still vacant. For a town to have downtown land undeveloped and open is very usual. As the population of L.A. moves west, and the West Valley and Ventura County become more urban, that Malibu Civic Center land becomes more valuable. As I see it, if our overall attitude is no, never, no, nothing, then the only choices the owners have is to walk, sell or litigate. I would guesstimate that if you could build out our Civic Center as currently zoned, you’re probably looking at a billion dollars worth of land. For that kind of money, people will fight. I base my feeling of value on the fact that the Jamestown Group bought the Malibu Village Center (the piece from the movie theater down to the Banana Republic then over to the Wells Fargo Bank) for $120 million or so. Since the buildings are all one story and pretty basic, you can assume that almost all of that price was for the land.
In conclusion, I think people should think very carefully about where the city is going and where it’s going to spend its money. To give any new project an automatic knee jerk ‘no’ is to commit to a policy of constant, very expensive warfare to the exclusion of many other things. That doesn’t make any sense to me.