This column was written on Tuesday, Dec. 12, in advance of the Alabama Senate election.
If Sunday football was not enough for you and you’re hankering for a real blood-and-guts confrontation, then today may do it for you. Today is going to be a very exciting day at the polls. Normally, December is the political doldrums, but Alabama has turned that around because its people are going to the polls to pick a successor to their former, dearly loved U.S. Senator Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III, who is now our U.S. Attorney General. The face-off in this contest is between Republican former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore—who was twice removed from office for creating his own independent version of the law—and the somewhat bland former U.S. Attorney Doug Jones, who, in a normal election, would just be this year’s Democratic sacrificial lamb. Alabama, as most of you may know, is a very red state—and that’s not because of the color of its soil. It’s because Alabama is about as conservative and Republican as a state can get in this country. It’s hard to believe that many eons ago, long before the 1968 Civil Rights Act, Alabama was actually a Democrat state along with most of the South (but that’s ancient history). Alabama hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in at least 25 years; in fact, most of its statewide officers and legislature are solidly—and predictably—Republican. When ballots are cast, typically Democrats may have a shot in the urban centers of Birmingham, Montgomery and in African American-dominated areas. However, they invariably get swamped when the white rural vote comes in—Alabama is a significantly rural state. Donald Trump carried this state by more than 25 points, which was one of his stronger showings.
So, how did this come to pass, that a Democrat might actually have an opportunity—a rather small opportunity, I’ll admit—to take this particular Senate seat? After all, Roy Moore is a son of the Alabama soil: colorful, outspoken, pigheaded (or principled, depending on your political preference), evangelical to the point that he’s practically said the rest of us are going to burn in hell for our lack of faith consistent with his, and along the way has managed to offend the entire L.G.B.T. community, Muslims, women and Jews—although his wife recently said that one of their attorneys is a Jew, which, I will admit, set my mind to rest. In addition to all of the aforementioned, he managed to totally turn off the entire Republican establishment. The Republicans backed a lackluster senator Luther Strange, who went down in defeat. Initially, the Republicans backed away from Moore, especially after stories began to break about Moore and some very young ladies he pursued in years past, one as young as 14 when he was a 30-something Deputy District Attorney. He was apparently well know for hanging around the mall and the high school, hitting on the young ones. It went beyond inappropriate into actually creepy, but maybe that’s more the norm in the South of 30-40 years ago. He, of course, has denied it all.
Moore and his wife have come back swinging—after an initial dip in the polls, he began to make something of a comeback. The Republican party then had a dilemma. No one had to tell them that Moore was a slimy SOB. Heck, even the senior Senator Shelby from Alabama said he couldn’t support Moore. But, bottom line, politics is a practical business. As someone once said in a similar situation when asked to support an undesirable candidate, “He might be an SOB, but at least he’s our SOB.” This meaning that he’s still a predictable Republican vote in the Senate, so the money began to flow back into Moore’s campaign.
Will it work? If I was handicapping the race, I would say probably so. For Democratic Doug Jones to win, it would require a total repudiation of Donald Trump, who has now gone all in to support Moore. The Republicans don’t think it’s going to happen, at least not in Alabama. They know that Moore is going to be a millstone around their necks, but they’re obviously willing to chance it. For now, anyway.
Currently, the Senate is split—52 Republicans to 48 Democrats. If Moore lost, and I believe it’s his to lose, that would make for a 51-49 Senate. In a Senate race that close, every senator is going to want something big for their own state and with each new demand, the deficit will rise and the deficit hawks will get even more hesitant for the tax cut or whatever.
So, from a Republican point of view, a lot is riding on today’s Alabama election. If Moore wins, it’s business as usual. If Jones were to win, well then everyone would have to do a major recalibration and figure where they go from here.
Polls close at 8 p.m. EST/5 p.m. PST.