Writer Andrew Lyons gives us his picks for who will take the gold.
By Andrew Lyons / Special to The Malibu Times
The biggest night in Hollywood is only days away and for some nominated Malibu residents, the excitement, and the anxiety, must be building. But hopefully our annual Academy Awards preview will ease the pressure, as we let them know whether they should be preparing a speech or practicing to flash a false supporting smile when someone else’s name is called.
This year, three locals are in the running in high profile categories, and, impressively, each already has at least one Oscar. Charlize Theron, who won two years ago for “Monster,” is up again in the Best Actress Category. Legendary director Steven Spielberg, nominated for directing “Munich,” is already a two-time winner. And Stephen Gaghan, who won a 2000 Best Original Screenplay award for “Traffic,” is nominated again in the same category, this time for “Syriana.” Unfortunately for Gaghan, a repeat is unlikely.
Experts are pegging this year as a battle between “Crash” and “Good Night, and Good Luck.” But if those two split the vote, Gaghan’s scathing political drama might sneak in. Here are our picks in the evening’s other major categories.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams- “Junebug”
Catherine Keener- “Capote”
France McDormand- “North Country”
Rachel Weisz- “The Constant Gardener”
Michelle Williams- “Brokeback Mountain”
Far more compelling than the Best Actress category, this group features four legitimate contenders. Only McDormand appears out of the running. Weisz and relative newcomer Adams both have legitimate chances. But the two frontrunners are Keener, as novelist Harper Lee, and Williams, as the long-suffering wife of a secretly gay husband. The edge may go to Keener, who manages to hold her own in scenes opposite the year’s most flamboyant performance. Our Pick: Keener.
Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney- “Syriana”
Matt Dillon- “Crash”
Paul Giamatti- “Cinderella Man”
Jake Gyllenhaal- “Brokeback Mountain”
William Hurt- “A History of Violence”
This is another very competitive category in which almost no victor would surprise. Hurt, who has a lot of fun with very little screen time, is the long shot. Gyllenhaal might benefit if “Brokeback” dominates the awards. Dillon could carry the banner for the large “Crash” ensemble. But the strongest contenders are Giamatti, who many believe should already have a statuette or two, and Clooney, who gained weight and suffered an injury during production. In a true toss-up, we’ll give it to the “Cinderella” story. Our Pick: Giamatti.
Best Director
Ang Lee- “Brokeback Mountain”
Bennett Miller- “Capote”
Paul Haggis- “Crash”
George Clooney- “Good Night, and Good Luck.”
Steven Spielberg- “Munich”
Spielberg is the elder statesman of this group with six directing nominations and two wins but this isn’t his year. The director of “Brokeback Mountain” has swept virtually all of the critics’ awards and there’s no reason to think the Oscars will be any different. Our pick: Lee.
Best Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman- “Capote”
Terrence Howard- “Hustle & Flow”
Heath Ledger- “Brokeback Mountain”
Joaquin Phoenix- “Walk The Line”
David Strathairn- “Good Night, and Good Luck”
In most years, this would be a heated battle. But the broad consensus is that the good work of Howard, Phoenix and Strathairn will have to serve as its own reward. As in other categories, a “Brokeback” avalanche might propel Ledger to the upset win. But Hoffman has won most awards leading up to the Oscars and it’s hard to imagine that his powerful, risky performance won’t be honored by the Academy as well. Our Pick: Hoffman
Best Actress
Judi Dench- “Mrs. Henderson Presents”
Felicity Huffman- “Transamerica”
Keira Knightley- “Pride & Prejudice”
Charlize Theron- “North Country”
Reese Witherspoon- “Walk The Line”
It’s unfortunate, but like many recent years, finding five worthy best actress nominees is difficult. In stronger years, Knightley and Dench would get little more than praise for their performances. Malibu’s Theron does good work but isn’t generating much buzz this year. That leaves Witherspoon and Huffman. Both could legitimately claim victory but our money is on a Hollywood darling who starred in the movie people actually saw. Our Pick: Witherspoon
Best Picture
“Brokeback Mountain”
“Capote”
“Crash”
“Good Night, and Good Luck”
“Munich”
In this race, there are two horses. “Crash,” which has strong support from the actors’ branch of the Academy, is the clear underdog. Every indication is that this is the year to bet on the favorite. “Brokeback” has the most nominations of any film with eight, and has taken the lion’s share of the critics’ awards. It seems destined to climb the mountain this Sunday. Our Pick: “Brokeback Mountain.”
The 78th Annual Academy Awards air this Sunday, March 5 on ABC.