Climate change could put the planet in peril, disrupting both the natural world and society, according to a leaked report drafted by the United Nations-backed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The summary, leaked on a blog critical of the panel, predicted further environmental changes that could affect plant, animal and human life, including risks to the world’s food and water supply and possibly contributing to violent conflict, the international panel of scientists said.
North America face the greatest risk of wildfires, coastal flooding and heat-related deaths, the study found.
“We see a wide range of impacts that have already occurred … on people, ecosystems and economies,” Chris Field, a scientist at the Carnegie Institution for Science and co-chairman of the group writing the report, told the Los Angeles Times. “Looking into the future, we see increasing risks that are more pervasive and more severe with greater amounts of climate change.”
Field and an IPCC spokesman confirmed that the draft was authentic, but the report could still change before it is released in March.
The report tracks climate change based in the human-caused buildup of greenhouse gases since the Industrial Revolution. The leaked report says plants and animals have already shifted their ranges as temperatures rise and glaciers melt. Species will face a greater threat of extinction, marine life will shift toward the poles and seawater will become more acidic as global warming continues through the 21st century.
Rising sea levels will flood coastal areas and subtropics will have less freshwater by 2100, leading to more competition for resources, according to the report. The report also found risks to food supply, extreme heat waves, severe storms, flooding and droughts that could heavily affect urban areas. Rural areas could see less productive farming due to less drinking and irrigation water.
“The reason we care about climate change is because it affects us: It affects our food, our water, our health, our roads, buildings and infrastructure and our natural environment,” Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientists at Texas Tech University who did not contribute to the assessment, told the LA Times.
But climate change isn’t the only factor. Population grown, urbanization and exploitation of natural resources will also affect the future of the planet, the report says. Economic growth could slow down and hunger, poverty and disease could worsen, the panel said.
There is also a risk of violence and civil war as rising sea levels could lead to territorial disputes in low-lying countries, the report found.
The IPCC has issued five major assessments on climate change, including a report on possible effects, since it was created in 1988. The assessments are compiled by hundreds of scientists who collect and summarize studies from around the world.