On Tuesday, Nov. 4, we’ll finally be going to the polls and put an end to this endless madness that seems to seize the body politic each election cycle. There will be a certain sense of closure when it’s finally over, which will last for a couple of days and then everyone will immediately start handicapping the 2016 races. I accept that handicapping elections has become a national sport, like a football fantasy league. What I can’t accept is why everyone is so angry about it.
At our last council meeting an angry group of villagers stormed the council meeting, carrying signs that could have easily passed for torches. The scene was reminiscent of the villagers in “Young Frankenstein.” They then spent an hour lambasting the council and staff over the removal of some election signs, and then Mayor Skylar Peak finally, after stalling as long as possible, had someone removed and the meeting went on. Their less—than—subtle message was that this was practically a life—or—death issue, that the City Council was underhandedly trying to skew the election one way, and that the staff including the city manager and city attorney were co—conspirator and liars manipulating us all.
My response to most of them is, “Get a life.” The rage that people can generate over issues that have been overly simplified for a ballot measure has all the aspects of a movie casting, and bad casting in many ways.
The villain is the greedy developer who spreads his money around like manure and buys whatever he wants. As I drive through Malibu and look at the signs on the streets, it certainly looks to me as if the big money is coming in on the side of the “Yes on R.” Actually, we know that it is true because a lot of Hollywood heavy hitters have kicked in $330,000 to date, probably more before the final tally is counted. So, if Measure R fails there are going to be a lot of very unhappy contributors. On the other hand, if it passes there are going to be a lot of happy faces for a while. I say for a while because I know what’s not going to happen.
—The traffic is not going to go away, whether we have a Whole Foods or not. Every year 15 million or so people come to Malibu. They come to use the beaches and not to shop at Whole Foods. Most don’t stop here long enough to buy much more than a Starbucks latte.
—The dollars are not coming in to the Civic Center to fix the traffic jam, at the intersection of PCH and Cross Creek Road. Typically, those improvements are paid for in part by new development. No new development means no expensive fixes unless the citizens of Malibu vote for bonds. I would be adamantly opposed to the citizenry paying for improvements to the advantage of existing center owners.
—If Measure R passes, the owners of the already existing centers are going to see a significant jump in the value of their centers. It’s simply supply and demand. I would guesstimate if Measure R passes that the $120 million Malibu Village Center they just purchased will immediately become a $180 million center.
—If Measure R passes what will happen next? Probably not much. First the owners of raw land in the Civiic Center will have to decide what they want to do. Do they want to move their projects, do they just want to wait or do they want to go to court?
—Lastly, there is a very strange twist to this, all related the Civic Center prohibition. The city has signed a Memo of Understanding (MOU) with the LA Regional Water Quality Control Board. That memo requires the Civic Center landowners, not the city, build a sewage treatment plant by 2015, now 2016. It required a vote of the Civic Center landowners but it was pretty much a done deal because all the center owners wanted it. If Measure R passes a number of those landowners may not be so anxious to sign on for a sewer when they might never get to see their project built. I suspect if Measure R passes some very expensive and talented land use attorneys are going to be poring over this and the various options.
One thing is clear. If they don’t build a sewer plant, the commercial centers have to disconnect from their septic systems before 2016 and the surrounding residential area, including Serra and the Colony, by 2019.
Frankly, I don’t have answers. This thing might do what they want it to or might spin out in a half—dozen different directions. No one knows and no one can really predict.