I did something last night that I generally don’t do — I actually watched the first debate, or a least the first half of the debate. Debates make me so nervous that I prefer to wait and look at the clips and survey the world’s reaction after the fact
A political debate is not really a debate. It’s two opposing sides marshaling the facts, often scrambling the facts to try and sell their story. Monday night, Trump and Clinton had two very different objectives.
The Trump objective
It was very import that he come across as presidential. The opposition narrative is that he’s a loose canon, easily irritated and provoked, and certainly can’t be trusted with the nation’s nuclear weapons. He started out OK, stayed on message, didn’t seem very scary and held it together for about a half hour and then it began to slip as Hillary jabbed at him. He got annoyed and somewhat disturbed. He didn’t lose it altogether or do anything that was terribly wrong, but his inexperience and lack of preparation showed. A 90-minute debate is a long time in the ring, and you need a number of different issues so you don’t run out of gas. You have to keep the pressure on for the full 90 minutes. You also have to be able to pivot — that is, to spin away from the question you don’t want to answer to the one you are prepared to answer. Overall, he was slow in his pivot. Whether that’s due to lack of preparation or to lack of intellect I really can’t tell, but he will probably improve in the future as he alters his approach. So, his objectives, overall: Keep cool, which in the main I thought he did; stay out of policy debates since she is so much more knowledgeable, which he basically did; and be nice so you don’t look like a nasty guy beating up on a woman. That was a little tough for him and made him a little bit surly. Overall grade: About a “C.”
The Hillary Objective
Break Donald’s momentum. He’s been on a roll for the last few weeks and the race is too close to call. I was sure his campaign finally took away his phone, I suspect practically at gunpoint, to stop him from tweeting. Donald’s tweets were Hillary’s strongest weapon. Her strategy was simple. Upset him. Annoy him. Feed his paranoia that the race isn’t fair, that the decks are stacked, that the moderator really favors Hillary, that Donald’s not given proper respect and then stand back and let him pout, smirk, interrupt, talk over you, get pushy, and let him try and take control. Hillary has to stay calm, stay presidential, stay tough — but not smug, which is her vulnerable point. On a whole she did it, and I’d give her an overall grade of B+.
The basic question
The basic question is, “Does it matter?” I suspect that most of the Trump followers know full well what Trump is — that he’s selfish and self-centered and a bit of a con — and they simply don’t care. They don’t care because they’ve been conned too many times themselves by all of us — and that’s both Republicans and Democrats. The American economy has improved and many of them haven’t seen any of it. They are running out of hope for themselves and their children.
The Americans who have profited from the growing economy, globalization, the modern technology, robotization, the internet and the benefits of education are usually the educated and the already affluent, or come from affluent families. They are also the young, who can adapt to change and move around easily, as do the coastal dwellers. The people paying the price now live in the middle of the country — in Ohio, Michigan and Iowa — and in the South. A lot of their industry has gone, moved away, and taken the jobs with them. Their towns are drying up, their local stores closing, their kids moving away looking for opportunity. They want it to be somebody’s fault, because if it’s somebody’s fault, if you can get rid of those people, then it can be fixed.
We won’t know the verdict on this debate for about a week. Hillary’s position should improve. If it doesn’t, she’s in big trouble. Watch the battleground states this next week and you’ll have an idea of where it’s all headed. In any event, the last line of defense is GOTV — “get out the vote.” The Hillary organization has spent a lot of time and money on GOTV, much more so than the Trump campaign. We’ll know in November who had the right strategy.