Compiled by the Political Pulse
While Californians may only be periodically reminded of the tight presidential race this fall, the numbers indicate the contest between President Bush and John Kerry may be every bit as close as the 2000 race. As of this pre-GOP convention moment, most national polls show Kerry with a slight edge. But the most important numbers are the individual state polls, a number of which show the race just as close as it is nationally.
Below is a list of 21 state polls where the presidential race appears to be up for grabs. In 2000, Bush received just one more electoral vote than the 270 necessary to win the presidency. As the numbers below indicate, states worth a combined total of 180 electoral votes show the race in a statistical dead heat. Here are the most recent polls from the nation’s most competitive presidential states.
*Arizona
(10 electoral votes)
Bush: 48%
Kerry: 45%
Nader: (Not on ballot)
Unsure: 7%
2000 winner – Bush
*Maine
(4 electoral votes)
Bush: 41%
Kerry: 44%
Nader: 5%
Unsure: 11%
2000 winner – Gore
*New Mexico
(5 electoral votes)
Bush: 42%
Kerry: 49%
Nader: 3%
Unsure: 6%
2000 winner – Gore
*Pennsylvania
(21 electoral votes)
Bush: 43%
Kerry: 48%
Nader: 2%
Unsure: 7%
200 winner – Gore
*Arkansas
(6 electoral votes)
Bush: 51%
Kerry: 43%
Nader: 7%
2000 winner – Bush
*Michigan
(17 electoral votes)
Bush: 42%
Kerry: 47%
Nader: 2%
Unsure: 9%
2000 winner – Gore
*Nevada
(5 electoral votes)
Bush: 46%
Kerry: 43%
Nader: 4%
Unsure: 7%
2000 winner – Bush
Tennessee
(11 electoral votes)
Bush: 48%
Kerry: 44%
Don’t Know: 9%
2000 winner – Bush
Colorado
(9 electoral votes)
Bush: 48%
Kerry: 43%
Nader: 3%
Unsure: 6%
2000 winner – Bush
*Minnesota
(10 electoral votes)
Bush: 45%
Kerry: 47%
Nader: 3%
Unsure: 5%
2000 winner – Gore
North Carolina
(15 electoral votes)
Bush: 49%
Kerry: 44%
Unsure: 7%
2000 winner – Bush
*Washington
(11 electoral votes)
Bush: 43%
Kerry: 43%
Nader: 4%
Other/Unsure: 10%
2000 winner – Gore
*Florida
(27 electoral votes)
Bush: 48%
Kerry: 47%
Nader: 1%
Unsure: 4%
2000 winner – Bush
*Missouri
(11 electoral votes)
Bush: 45%
Kerry: 47%
Nader: 2%
Unsure: 6%
2000 winner – Bush
*Oregon
(7 electoral votes)
Bush: 42%
Kerry: 50%
Nader: 4%
Unsure: 4%
2000 winner – Gore
*West Virginia
(5 electoral votes)
Bush: 44%
Kerry: 47%
Nader: 3%
Unsure: 6%
2000 winner – Bush
*Iowa
(7 electoral votes)
Bush: 46%
Kerry: 48%
Nader: 2%
Unsure: 4%
2000 winner – Gore
*New Hampshire
(4 electoral votes)
Bush: 42%
Kerry: 49%
Nader: 2%
Unsure: 7%
2000 winner – Bush
*Ohio
(20 electoral votes)
Bush: 49%
Kerry: 44%
Nader: 2%
Unsure: 5%
2000 winner – Bush
*Wisconsin
(10 electoral votes)
Bush: 46%
Kerry: 47%
Nader: 3%
Don’t Know: 4%
2000 winner – Gore
Kentucky
(8 electoral votes)
Bush: 49%
Kerry: 43%
Unsure: 8%
2000 winner – Bush
* difference between Bush and Kerry is within the poll’s margin of error.