From the Publisher: Get Out While You Can

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Arnold G. York

I know many of you are having second thoughts about having evacuated your homes during the Woolsey Fire. Many of you are considering staying next time to protect your homes during a fire. For a fire, staying may be a sensible alternative, but for a mudslide or debris flow, staying is pure insanity. There is almost nothing you can do to help and you are putting yourself into extreme danger.

This is not a theoretical discussion. Last year, the Thomas Fire was a major fire in  Santa Barbara County, just north of Malibu. The hills were burned out. There were large patches of mountains and hillsides with no vegetation left—and then, the rains came. Hillsides, particularly denuded hillsides, have only so much capacity to hold onto the water and, at some point, the water is no longer absorbed and runs off toward the ocean. But the real danger is the mudslides and debris/rockslides. Once the hillsides let go, there is no way to hold the slides back. They pick up momentum as they rush downhill, tearing up trees, buildings, cars, retaining walls and, most dangerously, people. In Montecito, the debris flow ran 15 feet high, took everything I mentioned and killed 21 people. It was sudden, without time to do anything, and those in its path died.

If you live in Malibu, in any of these areas, don’t even think about it. Just leave—the sooner the better.

• Corral Canyon / El Nido

• Escondido / Old Chimney

• Escondido Drive / Latigo Canyon

• Malibu West / Trancas Canyon

• Malibou Lake

• All of Ramirez Canyon Road and adjacent streets

• Paradise Cove Mobile Home Park and Restaurant

The county engineers and staff believe all of the properties in these areas are in danger with a high risk for mud and/or debris flow. Even if you’re not directly affected, the roads around you may become inaccessible, so pick up the family, the kids, the pets and a change of underwear and go stay with friends. The rain is expected to last through Thursday. Worst case, it’s all just a false alarm. Best case, you might really be saving your life.

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The impacts of last year’s fires are going to leave their residue for a long time. I’m talking about the financial residue from the cost of fighting the fires, rebuilding and repairing infrastructure, and the liability impacts on large institutions like utility companies. Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) is the largest public utility in the state and looks to be on the hook for starting the Camp Fire, which burned out 18,000-plus structures, killed 86 people and practically wiped out the town of Paradise in Northern California. Its legal exposure looks to be enormous—running into multiple billions—and it has just given the state notice that it intends to file for a Chapter 11 bankruptcy. In Chapter 11, it could reorganize, work out a plan and essentially keep operating and provide electricity and gas to major areas of the state. At the same time, whatever debt it has, or acquires, could be extended over a long period of time, or even reduced substantially in the bankruptcy. It could even dissolve the company—something the state very much does not seem to want. The state does not want to be in the utility business and the legislature may give PG&E some relief. However, the state doesn’t want to pick up the tab either. The financial crisis is real. Before the Camp Fire, PG&E stock was trading at $48 per share. Now, it’s about $8 per share. It’s going to be a very difficult negotiation because there are so many parties impacted by the fires. How all this will impact people burned out who have lawsuits against the utility is unclear. I’ve been told Southern California Edison (SCE) is better managed and financially more sound than PG&E, but its financial exposure is also enormous if it is found to be liable for the starting of a fire. 

•••

Meanwhile, the country has not stood still while we dig out from the fires. The president has essentially decided if there is no wall, well, he’s going to take his football and go home and there will be no government. He partially shut down the entire thing. The U.S. Senate is holding confirmation hearings for a new attorney general, who swears he will let Mueller finish his investigation—even if Trump wants Mueller fired. The New York Times and the Washington Post broke stories with inside information someone had to have leaked to them about the FBI counterintelligence people, who thought Trump may possibly be a Russian asset. Additionally, a longtime congressman from Iowa named Steve King, who has been spewing racist, white supremacist lines for years, finally went too far and the House almost unanimously, in a seldom-seen bipartisan action, slapped his hands—the Republicans took away his Committee assignments, which is sort of like being sent to political purgatory. 

•••

Just as you begin to think we must have the most nonfunctional national government in the world, the British Parliament challenges us for top honors and overwhelmingly rejects the deal its own prime minister negotiated to get them out of the European Union, as if, somehow, it was all her fault. Apparently, the art of negotiation in the old world is as unsatisfying as our negotiations to end our government shutdown. Whatever happened to the art of the deal?