Last week, I published a list of the 12 California Republican congressmen who are in the cross hairs of the Democratic Party in the upcoming 2018 general election. One of the 12 was Representative Edward Royce—an 11-term congressman and House Foreign Affairs Committee chair—from Fullerton. On Tuesday, Jan. 9, Royce announced that he was not going to run for reelection in 2018. Now, in all modesty, I can’t really take credit for Royce’s decision not to run, but since modesty is so out fashion these days, I can only speculate that Royce read the column and just saw the handwriting on the wall.
Interestingly enough, several years ago the Republican Party instituted a caucus rule that Committee Chairmen can only serve three consecutive terms and then must give up their chair to make room for the younger members in the leadership. Several chairs, including Royce, have decided to retire when their three terms as chair were up. The Democratic Party has no such similar rule that I’m aware of and we as a party are now well on our way to a time of total geriatric leadership. If the Democrats ever retake the majority in the House, it’s probably going to require the construction of a small funicular to assist the older members down to their seats.
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One of interesting things about American politics is the “law of unintended consequences.” People will often do something for short-term gain that produces a long-term problem. For example, Pete Wilson, who was on the whole a moderate Republican California governor, had a campaign going in 1994 that was in political trouble. There was also something on the ballot called Proposition 187, a very anti-Hispanic proposition intended to scare the heck out of white voters. Wilson decided to go full in on supporting Proposition 187 and ran some very anti-Hispanic commercials. It worked—they frightened the white voters, who turned out heavily and Wilson won the governorship. But in the process, it drove a wedge between the Republican Party in California and California Hispanics, who, to this day, still exist; currently, the Republicans don’t hold a single statewide office. That is why I’m amazed at the Trump administration’s policy on immigration. Hispanics in this country are a large and rapidly growing minority, particular in Border States like California, Florida, Texas and other Southwestern states. Just today, they decided to kick 240,000 Salvadorans out of the country, many of who have been here since 2001. Those Salvadorans are integrated into America and they have almost 200,000 American-born children who are all American citizens. Coming on top of their previous actions to go after the Dreamers, the 12 million undocumented immigrants (who are principally Hispanic), their stated intention to kick out many other Central Americans and their treatment of the Puerto Ricans after the hurricanes, their actions are exactly contrary to everything they concluded had to be done when they did their own political autopsy after Obama won. I must admit it kind of boggles the mind. Why create enemies—particularly motivated enemies—when you don’t have to? The Republican base is not going anywhere, and all they are succeeding in doing is motivating a lot of people to vote who might not have cared that much before. Many people formerly said that there is no point in voting since all the parties are the same. But if you’re Hispanic and you know someone who is or may be thrown out of the country, or families that are going to be split up, you have a very powerful reason for going to the polls, and I suspect they will, in large numbers.
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Well, the rains have finally begun to come. After a dry fall, particularly December, this first major rain of the season has begun to replenish our water stock, which was down to 45 percent from the norm. The Sierras are anticipated to get 30 inches of snow and the ski resorts are breathing a sigh of relief. The rain is statewide, from Redding down to San Diego. But there is a big downside to heavy rains, particularly after a fire. Hillsides are denuded of vegetation, which means after heavy rains, they begin to slide. Mudslides are even more dangerous than fires because when they happen, they happen suddenly. In the Montecito-Carpinteria area, 13 people have died so far as a result of mudslides and if the rain continues, there will probably be more. The 101 freeway was closed for 30 miles in the Santa Barbara area and locally, Topanga Canyon was closed. We were fortunate to escape the fires this season, so we can anticipate some sliding, rocks falling and highway closures, but nothing on a scale of the places that went through the Thomas Fire, which destroyed 273,400 acres and over 1,000 structures. The fire is now the largest fire in California’s history. Let’s hope our luck holds out.