Handicapping the race
Like many of you, I’m enthralled by the presidential race. And, as is most of America, I’m a partisan, so depending on the latest tidbit of news, I find myself on an emotional roller coaster. Fortune down equals depression. Fortune up equals elation.
To try and smooth out those swings, I’ve developed a plan, a way to analyze what’s going on and, frankly, to try and smooth out those emotional highs and lows to make the next four months more bearable.
The race for the Presidency of the United States is a unique election contest, with its own set of rules and parameters, its own unique strategies, and unlike any other race in the country.
There are 50 states in the USA, but when it comes to electing a president, 38 of them simply don’t count; not because their votes aren’t counted, but because they are totally predictable, at least for now.
If Mitt Romney campaigned in California by walking on the water, and then fed us all from a few loaves and fishes, he would still lose the popular vote in California. That’s how predictable we are in the presidential contest. If Barack Obama raised his staff and parted the Mississippi River, be assured that Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana are still not going to cast their ballots for him.
As a result, both presidential campaigns spend most of their time and money on critical states, and avoid the other states, except to occasionally come in to raise money.
The big 12 were not always the same big 12. Some states that could have gone either way in the past have become more predictably partisan. Others, generally because of shifts in population, like Virginia and Florida, have become swing states.
Most of this is shaped by who actually votes and where those voters live. It’s winner take all, in all but two states, so whoever gets 50% plus one gets all of the state’s Electoral College votes, and it take 270 votes to win. The Electoral College goes strictly by population, so it’s not the number of states a candidate wins, it’s the number of electoral votes he collects.
The 12 states in play, often called the battleground states, are Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Some of those states are more critical than others. For example, if the Republicans lose Ohio or Florida, they’re probably going to lose the presidential race. If the Democrats lose Pennsylvania or Michigan, both big labor states, they’re probably goners.
As things presently stand, despite the fact that the job numbers have been disappointing and the economy is growing very slowly, Obama seems to be holding his own in the battleground states. In fact, according to the Wall Street Journal/NBC polls, he appears to actually be improving in those states. In the battleground states, three months ago the polls were showing Obama at 47% and Romney at 45%. Two months ago, it was Obama 47% and Romney 43%. Last month, Obama 48% and Romney 42%. That’s probably why you’re beginning to hear conservatives, like Murdock, saying that Romney should fire his campaign team and get some new tougher players into the game. The current theory is that Obama’s attacks on Bain Capitol, the charge that Romney made his dollars by outsourcing of American jobs, and his position on immigration, are striking a chord with some voters.
There is a cautionary note in all of this. What we know about the race is what the pollsters are telling us. Generally speaking, presidential races are won by only two or three percentage points, within the margin of error of the polls. Also, many potential voters don’t tell the pollsters the truth, particularly when there is a subsurface racial issue that also might be worth a few points. Historically, voters who are undecided up to the very end tend to break more often for the challenger than the incumbent.
In the final analysis, the outcome will depend on turnout, dirty tricks to keep voters from the polls, and whose political base is more enthusiastic and gets out the vote.
P.S. If you like to follow this, I would suggest Realclearpolitics.com, NBC First Read, Politico.com and, of course, all of the major national dailies.