in presidential campaign
Capitol Weekly editor Anthony York has been spending time in Nevada, a swing state that could play a major role in deciding the winner of the presidential election.
By Anthony York / Capitol Weekly
Fall has come to Reno, and the autumn transformation is in full swing. As a chill enters the morning air and the leaves begin to change colors, a horde of Barack Obama volunteers are working to change the state electorally from red to blue.
If Obama carries Nevada and wins the presidency, he will do so by doing the same thing he did to win the Iowa Caucus back in January-luring new voters to the polls.
This is a state that John Kerry lost to George Bush by just 21,500 votes. That was back in 2004, when the state had 1.07 million voters. In 2004, Republicans held a slim registration advantage of 434,239 voters versus 429,808 registered Democrats, according to numbers from the Nevada Secretary of State. What a difference four years makes. Voter registration in the state has skyrocketed to 1.45 million voters and the Republicans’ slight edge is gone. Democrats have more than 110,000 registered voters in Nevada. Bush carried Washoe County, which includes Reno, in 2004. But the registration reversal in this county has been profound. In 2004, Republicans had an 18,000-voter registration advantage among the county’s 233,000 voters. Now, there are 269,000 registered voters-105,000 Democrats and 104,000 Republicans.
The challenge for the Obama campaign is getting those voters to the polls. Just nine days before Election Day at Obama headquarters, located in the shadow of Downtown Reno’s largest casinos, Nevada deputy communications director Jeff Giertz is busily huddling with volunteers. Call centers have been set up targeting voters the campaign has already contacted. Obama himself made two stops in the state Saturday-one in Reno and another in Las Vegas-urging supporters to vote early. His campaign ads on the air here are driving home a similar message.
Since Oct. 18, when early voting began in Nevada, more than 6,000 Washoe voters have gone to the polls, more than double the number that had gone by this time in 2004. And the early voting has been mostly Democratic. Fifty-two percent of the votes in Washoe have been Democrats, 33 percent Republicans and 16 percent independent.
New voters are key to the Obama campaign’s national strategy. “We’re trying to change the electorate,” Giertz said. “That’s been our strategy from Day One.”
The McCain campaign is banking on finishing strong. They cede that Obama voters have early enthusiasm, but they remain cautiously optimistic that their voters will come to the polls and that McCain will carry Nevada.
Nevada’s McCain spokesman Rick Gorka says the campaign can withstand the obvious enthusiasm of the Obama voters. “Remember, Democrats were dancing in the streets four years ago about the record turn-out and excitement for John Kerry,” Gorka said, alluding to the 78 percent turnout among registered Nevada voters four years ago. “They’re putting the cart before the horse.”
The calculation for winning Nevada is basic for both parties. More than two-thirds of the state’s registered voters live in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas. Clark was the only county carried by John Kerry in 2004. Of the more than 825,000 votes cast in Nevada in 2004, 545,000 of them came from Clark. Kerry out polled George W. Bush by 25,000 votes, carrying the county 52 percent to 47 percent.
Republicans must try to offset the Democrats’ victory in Clark by running up the score in the state’s 15 rural counties, where Bush beat Kerry 2 to 1. That leaves Washoe as the toss-up. About one-third of Bush’s 21,000 vote victory in Nevada came in Washoe.
“It’s Ground Zero in a lot of ways,” Giertz said.
Obama has also made visits to the state’s rural counties and enlisted surrogates like Montana Sen. John Tester and former South Dakota Sen. Tom Daschle to speak to rural Nevada voters. The campaign has kept campaign offices open in the rural areas in an effort to keep Republican margins down.
The McCain campaign says Obama is wasting his time. “Barack Obama’s values are out of step with rural Nevada,” Gorka said. “We’re happy he’s wasting his money in a dried up fishing hole.”
But the battle for Washoe has been fierce. And surrogates from around the region, including many from California, have arrived for the closing days of the campaign.
This weekend, California Republican Party spokesman Hector Barajas was in Reno, and nearly two dozen Californians were in town walking precincts in Incline Village, near the California border.
And it’s not just man power. The CRP has also written a $1 million check to the Nevada Republican Party to help with the McCain campaign.
“We’re sending 300 to 350 people to Nevada every weekend,” Barajas said.
Californians are everywhere in the Nevada Obama effort as well. In the volunteer sign-in sheet, there were names from Oakland, Cupertino and Walnut Creek. At a Reno-area training for precinct walkers, Selina Ayala, a law student from McGeorge Law School and Raul Macias, a graduate student at Sacramento State University, said they made the trip for the weekend to have a chance to participate in the presidential campaign.
“There’s not much going on back in California, so I wanted to go somewhere I could make a difference,” said Macias, who spent two weeks in New Mexico on behalf of the Obama campaign earlier this year.
On Sunday, the McCain campaign hosted a “Joe the Plumber Bar-B-Q” outside its headquarters. About 30 volunteers and supporters milled around the parking lot, feasting on hot dogs and talking about the campaign ahead. One of them was Steve Williams, a local business owner who said he is a strong McCain supporter.
“I believe that an effective government has to be smaller and for the people,” Williams said. “I don’t think the Democratic answer is right for our country.”