Arnold G. York
Iraq: What next?
Every morning I open up the newspaper and there are news bulletins from Iraq.
There’s the daily toll of American dead and wounded. Then there’s the infinitely larger macabre death toll of the Iraqis, killed not by us but usually by each other as one faction or the others struggles for control. Lastly, there are our government’s absurdly optimistic predictions that we have turned the corner and victory or democracy or whatever the hell we call it these days is definitely in sight, if only we stay the course. Believe in the president, support our troops and protect freedom, God and the American way.
Worst of all is that it all sounds so familiar. Forty or so years ago it was Vietnam, and saving democracy was our goal. We poured our young men and women and our national treasure into saving a country from communism, because if we lost it we were assured that all of Southeast Asia would fall to the communists. Well, it’s 40 years later and we did lose and what happened? What happened is that Vietnam became a unified country and American ex GIs are going back to Vietnam as tourists on nostalgic tours and crawling through the Viet Cong tunnels being led by ex-VC soldiers who are now working as tour guides. And by all accounts from friends who have been there, Vietnam is a lovely thriving country and surprisingly free from bitterness. And now I simply can’t remember why we were there in the first place, and why we thought it was so important to our national interest to be there.
So what does it prove? It proves to me that the future is impossibly hard to predict and that many of the assumptions made by experts about Iraq, as were the assumptions made about Vietnam, are going to prove to be wrong.
Don’t misunderstand me. I believe in force. We live in a real world and force is an important part of our arsenal, along with our economy and our know-how, which all serves to make and keep us a world power. In the Middle East, in particular, force is very much a necessary component in any negotiation. However, being willing to use force is one thing; being addicted to force is quite another. And I truly believe we have an addiction.
You have to ask yourself, why are we in Iraq today? Is there some great American national interest involved in which faction, becomes dominant in Iraq? Does it really matter to us if the Shiites get control, or the Sunnis or the Kurds-or if it turns out to be some uneasy coalition that combines the three? It isn’t just those three. Every one of those groups has three of four factions, so it’s really 12 groups vying for power. Then there are all the families and the clans, and the multitude of clerical groups also struggling for power and control, and the 12 groups turn into 24 or 36 groups. Ultimately, they’re going to have to work out their own government. And whatever it is, we’re going to end up recognizing them and doing business with whomever survives.
Why are we afraid of leaving? One argument goes that without us they’ll kill each other; to which I reply, “so what.” The truth is that we’re the 800-pound gorilla in the room and every faction secretly believes that if they can cut a deal with us, they actually can emerge triumphant over the other factions. Without us, they all know they have to cut a deal with each other.
Another argument is that if we pull out it would all collapse into chaos and somehow that it will lead to more terrorism. It’s really a variation on the old domino theory. The problem is that no one knows if that’s true; in fact, it’s equally as probable that when we get out they’ll reach an accommodation, Iraq style. It might not be our style, but who are we to say what democracy should look like in the Middle East.
Another line of argument is that if we pull out they’ll stop pumping oil and there will be gigantic oil crises and our economic engine will grind to a halt or worse yet, gas will go to $5, $6, $10 per gallon. Again I say, “so what.” I might actually have to trade in my SUV for a hybrid or a little bitty car. However, I suspect that no matter what happens, the oil will keep flowing because no matter what, every country-capitalist, communist or socialist-always needs money and to get it they have to keep pumping the oil.
It’s also sensible to pull our money out, and all of our contract mercenaries that we’re paying for. If they want us back to keep the peace, then make us an offer.
All and all, it’s time for us to get serious and get out. Here’s my plan:
First, I’d stop the charade of a trial and take Saddam Hussein-along with a couple dozen of his buddies-out back and hang them from the closest tree. The message would be very clear: “Screw with us and you’re dead.” Why kill a bunch of innocent Americans and equally as innocent Iraqis when all we really wanted to do was knock off Saddam? Do we really have to go through this charade just to kill the guy?
Then I’d get our kids out of that country as quickly as possible. Along with the kids, I’d pull out our equipment and, most of all, our money. We’re paying them to kill each other. We have created an enormous profit motive in killing each other. I can see no reason for us to subsidize a bunch of warlords, religious zealots and private armies.
The answer is to get out as quickly as we can because we are stuck in a no-win situation. We’ve made our point: “Don’t mess with us unless you’re on a suicidal mission.” But that’s for another column.