From the publisher/ Arnold York
There was a time when the troubles of the Middle East seemed far away, but I guess that sense of distance was always just an illusion. Today, in a globalized society, and events have a way of reaching across the world and sucking us in.
President Bush looked at the Clinton experience, and initially made the calculation that the sides simply weren’t ready to talk yet and there was nothing to be gained by getting into the middle of it. He was probably right, but when you’re the 800-pound gorilla, which is what the U.S. is, it’s virtually impossible to take no position. So, the United States is trying, but with a much less ambitious agenda of small steps, like the Ramallah deal.
The Ramallah deal, which was recently engineered, frees Arafat and requires that the Americans and the Brits guard some Palestinian prisoners in a Palestinian jail in Jericho. The deal gets everyone temporarily off the hook-the U.S., the Palestinians and Arafat, Sharon and the Israelis, who had no long-term idea what to do with Arafat. It was too risky to kill him, and too domestically hot to let him go. Perhaps the deal will work out just fine, but I don’t know what will happen if some Palestinian militia decides they don’t like the deal and decides to free all the prisoners from Jericho. Do the American and British guards fire on them, or call in the Israeli military for help or the Palestinian Security for help? I’m fearful the U.S. may be providing a potential group of American and British hostages and, if things get hot, which in the Middle East is reasonably predictable, getting them and the prisoners out could be tricky. So, for now, all Bush can do is wait, tread the tightrope, try to keep it from blowing up into a full-scale regional conflict, and when both sides have bled enough, push them to begin talking.
The president is in town to raise a bunch of money for the Rep. Bill Simon Jr. campaign for governor of California, because it’s apparent the campaign is stalling. They were having trouble raising big money and the initial momentum they got from the victory over former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan appears to be dissipating very quickly.
There is always a problem with a new, relatively unknown candidate like Simon running against a well-seasoned and well-financed candidate like Gov. Gray Davis. People have been taking shots at Davis for years, so there is little on the personal side that hasn’t been explored ad nauseum. Simon, on the other hand, is fresh fodder, and the opposition research is combing through his entire past life. The press, which is always looking for something new and fresh, will grab at any tidbit that Davis’s campaign chief Gary South feeds them. And South is an old pro at doling it out to keep Simon on the defensive.
For example, the business about releasing tax returns was absolutely predictable, and Simon’s unwillingness to release his returns made him appear defensive as if he was hiding something. I’d guess they probably are hiding something. Either he paid little or no taxes, or there are some iffy tax shelters, or perhaps he’s only been a California resident for a very short period of time.
In any event, the voter perception is often more important than the reality. Simon’s going to get hit with a number of shots in this campaign and the most important thing will be the way he handles them. The Republican’s are hoping they have another potential Reagan, but if he is, he sure hasn’t shown it yet. Ronald Reagan was a political master of deflection and one of the ways he did it was with humor. In one of his campaigns, I don’t remember which one, he was asked if age was going to be an issue. He said he had no intention of mentioning his opponent’s youth and everyone laughed. After that, the age issue was gone. Simon’s got to learn that, and learn it quickly, or he’s going to get killed.
He’s going to have some opportunities. Davis is not popular, and with a state deficit headed toward $20 billion dollars, the state is going to need both a tax increase and program cuts, which are calculated to drive Davis’ popularity even lower. Davis needs to get a balanced budget through, because that’s what the law requires, and the legislative Republicans, and a few Democrats also, are going to take great pleasure in beating him up with the budget.
But it won’t mean anything if Simon doesn’t have the ability to take advantage of it. Still, it’s a long way to November, and in politics, six months is a lifetime. Some of this battle might play itself out locally in Malibu in its battle with the California Coastal Commission. If the race tightens, watch for both the governor and Simon to start working this town and the coast very hard. If people get mad enough, there may be a lot of Democrats switching sides in the coastal districts. No telling yet, but as I said, it’s a long way to November.