The president is coming to California, his first visit since his election and he’s going to meet with our governor, Gray Davis. They’re going to put their heads together and try and figure out how we solve California’s energy problems. That, at least, is the party line that both sides are putting out. And if you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you.
Reality, however, is something significantly different.
California is a solidly Democratic state. The governor, both U.S. senators, the congressional delegation and both houses of the state Legislature are Democratic, and, in the last election, Al Gore killed George Bush.
That was the status quo until the energy crisis came along. After a period of time, when the people of California held their breath to try and decide who was responsible, they appear to have concluded that Gov. Davis is not too impressive and his popularity has begun to sink. Most recently, polls show that L.A.’s mayor, Richard Riordan, who is not yet even a declared candidate for governor, is only one point behind Davis in the polls, which in political terms is a disaster for an incumbent. Worse yet, Davis’ negatives are higher in the polls than his positives, and the Republicans, at least the national Republicans, are beginning to smell blood in the water.
Davis has always been a cautious, not very dynamic politico, and distinctly risk adverse. He never moves until he’s ready and until his coffers are full. His greatest strength was not that people loved him; it was that no one hated him. He was always blandly acceptable and safe.
In good times that was more than enough. But it’s becoming clear that these may not be such good times, and as a potential war time leader for an economic war, Davis appears to be a pale, bloodless overly cautious individual who has been unable to articulate the problem clearly, and is fearful of telling us that we’re going to have to bite the bullet if we’re going to solve the energy shortage. He’s also made some clumsy moves. Initially, he said he would not approve a rate hike, which was an absurd position to take, and one he ultimately had to abandon which didn’t do much for his credibility.
That’s not to say that life is fair. Davis did not create this crisis. It was created by former Gov. Pete Wilson, a bipartisan action of the Legislature, the environmentalists and the utilities that managed to get deregulation all wrong and ultimately got themselves eaten by a bunch of barracudas out of Texas. Those are the same barracudas that control federal energy policy and have no intention of doing anything but sucking up every dollar they can out of us.
Even though Davis didn’t create this situation he has been singularly unimpressive in his inability to fix it because, I suspect, we all know we need a “war time Don” and he certainly isn’t it.
On the other side of the coin, the national Republicans are playing a bit of a dangerous game because California makes up 12 percent or 13 percent of the U.S. economy. If the Republicans overplay their hand and the biggest richest state in the Union plunges into recession, the rest of the country is probably not far behind. If that happens, they will take the blame.
Local California Republicans are also in a dilemma, because what’s good for their party nationally most probably is not good for their state. So Bush is going to be getting pressure from the California Republicans who want him to help their state and their districts. I suspect in the period ahead their loyalty is going to be sorely tried and many may have to choose between state and party.
In the meantime, about the only thing we can be sure of is that gas at the pump is going up, electricity is going to be scarcer and more expensive, the California economy is going to take a nasty hit, and we’re all going to be very angry.