What it is and what it ain’t
From the Publisher/Arnold G. York
The voters went into caucus all over Iowa and did a terrible thing. They embarrassed all the pundits. They apparently were blissfully unaware that Time and Newsweek had already declared, by their cover choices in the weeks before the caucus, that Howard Dean was the winner. I hate when the voters do that. It seems so ungrateful. Week after week we pour out sweat-laden punditry and what do we get? Gratitude? No. We get Sen. John F. Kerry and Sen. John Edwards.
Of course, you have to keep this in perspective. True, Kerry got 38 percent of the vote and Sen. Edwards got 32 percent. Considering only a week or so ago they were practically thought to be also-rans, you might very well ask, What the hell happened? After all, Dean, who was the front runner and practically planning a triumphal tour through Iowa, ended up with 18 percent and a weak third while the hometown favorite, the boy from next door, Rep. Dick Gephardt, only got 11 percent, which made him the first major casualty of the war.
What you’ve got to remember is the reason Iowa draws the interest of the country is not that it’s the biggest, the most important, or necessarily a bell weather of what’s coming. What Iowa is, is the first. It’s the first time the contestants go someplace where they really have to duke it out and we get to measure the results. Exciting as it is, and as big as the election night coverage may be, it still is only the voice of just under 3,000 Democrat voters who decide the outcome, which is fewer voters than the typical turnout in a Malibu city council election. In the last eight presidential elections, the Democratic winner of the Iowa caucus went on to win the presidency twice, which is 25 percent. So, as a predictor, it’s a little iffy.
Still, it’s done a number of things. In one election of fewer than 3,000 voters, it’s changed the landscape, at least for now. It’s taken Gephardt out of the race. I suspect it’s clear to Gephardt that he has become an old face and his old base of support, which was labor, isn’t what it used to be. Gephardt is of the old Midwest industrial and craft union labor-typically white people with blue collars and urban ethnics. Labor is now more urban, more minority, more government workers, and a great deal of those industrial base jobs are gone, and along with it, the politicians who flourished in that world, like Gephardt.
The caucus victory brought Kerry back from the dead. Up to now he was perceived as a fading star, but suddenly he’s back in the game. His campaign, which was in large measure self-funded, is going to see gobs of money flowing in and carloads of new volunteers. His new campaign organization has begun to prove itself, which gives him some momentum, at least for now. But now it’s going to happen fast and furious. New Hampshire is on Jan. 27, followed quickly on Feb. 3 by Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina. Then, on Feb. 7, Michigan and Washington.
After each race, the pundits will pundit, analyze and hypothesize, but the pros will be sitting with sheets full of data and trying to handicap.
The questions the pros will ask are:
Can Kerry run in the Southern states and the Midwest? If he can’t, can he make it without them? How about the far West? How does he handle adversity? Which are the critical states nationwide? When he goes head-to-head with Bush, can he take the must-win states for a Democrat?
Iowa also introduced Edwards to the country. Unlike Kerry, who is a Massachusetts Brahmin, Edwards is a kid from the wrong side of the tracks who made good. He’s Horatio Alger in a $3,000 suit with a very up and optimistic personality. He’s also handsome and a fresh face, and perhaps most of all, he’s a Southerner, none of which hurts. In the last 30 years, only two Democrats have been elected president and both, Carter and Clinton, were from the south, a fact not lost on the Democratic Party.
But Iowa also provided an opportunity for Dean. His campaign was sort of a Johnny-one-note, and it obviously grated after a while. He’s going to get an opportunity to regroup, shift his strategy, and go out there and prove his grit. He’s also now an underdog, which, in a long presidential contest, is always better. Everyone gangs up on the front-runner, and I think that it’s all going to be coming at Kerry now.
Gen. Wesley K. Clark also won in Iowa, because his strategy was right to stay away from the show. It didn’t cost him anything and it gave him time to work New Hampshire. But I think New Hampshire is do or die for Clark. He’s got to show well or he goes the way of Gephardt. The Democrats have never had a general before, and that may play well in parts of the country where they normally don’t do as well, which could make them more competitive.
Last but not least is George W. Up to Iowa they were sharpening their knives for Dean. Now they may have to hold their fire until the Democratic primary clears out the also-rans. My gut sense is that the White House team wanted to run against Dean. He has a smell of McGovern about him-young voters, lots of enthusiasm and a very narrow base. You can win party primaries with that, but not the country.
The conventional wisdom is that a hard fought primary leaves the party divided and weakened. I don’t think that’s the case this time. A hard fought competitive primary keeps public interest high and is also a bully pulpit for candidates to show themselves. The winner is going to be whoever comes off looking most presidential and then, perhaps, November may very well be up for grabs.