From the Publisher/Arnold York
It’s barely one month to Election Day. The absentee ballots are already beginning to come in. And everything is still topsy-turvy.
I’ve been conducting a series of totally unscientific polls. I’ve polled myself. I’ve polled my family. I’ve polled the morning coffee crowd at Diedrich. I’ve polled the Malibu Business Roundtable. I’ve polled my son, Anthony, and he’s been polling his Sacramento contacts, all seasoned political animals. The results are all the same. No one has the faintest idea what’s going to happen. The election is still up for grabs. Here is my take on it now, as of 2:25 pm on Tuesday, Sept. 9.
Gray Davis
He’s trailing, but he’s picked up a little momentum. The question is no longer, do you hate Gray Davis? The question now is, do you hate Gray Davis more than you like Cruz Bustamante or Arnold Schwarzenegger? Strangely enough, Davis is not only running against the Republicans, he’s also running against fellow Democrat Bustamante. If Bustamante shows poorly, or makes some Democrats uneasy, they’re probably more inclined to stick with Davis, who, although not beloved, is at least a known quantity. All the Republicans want Davis out, so the question is, will his fellow Democrats kick him out? He’s got a month to catch up, or, to put it another way, there is a month for the others to screw up. But Davis still has a long way to go.
Cruz Bustamante
Now Bustamante has two, maybe even three strategies.
Strategy No. 1 is, ‘No on recall, Yes on Cruz.’ At least that’s the public strategy. The truth is that the last thing in the world Bustamante wants is for Davis not to be recalled. This is Bustamante moment, and probably his only moment. If Davis is recalled, the odds are that Bustamante will be the next governor of California. After all, this is a Democratic state and, unless an attractive Republican comes along, most Democrats will continue to vote along party lines. Now Bustamante can’t say that, so it’s probably going to be surrogates going around whispering the unofficial line that Davis is dead, so why try to save him.
Strategy No. 2-Keep on doing what he’s doing, move left to the Democratic base-the minorities, the unions and the enviros. Right now, he’s apparently ahead of Schwarzenegger 30 percent to 25 percent, and I suspect that will open a bit as we get closer to the election, unless any of two things happen. One is that Arnold catches fire. The other is that McClintock withdraws from the race.
Bustamante also has to contend with some baggage. The $2 million he got from the Indian tribes, I believe, really hurt him. Tribal money and big time Las Vegas gambling are becoming a big issue in California politics. Maybe not yet, but soon. Bustamante has got to worry that the electorate will see him as just another political hack on the take.
Arnold Schwarzenegger
Some of my Republican friends are thinking that Arnold is doing just fine. I don’t agree. So far, he hasn’t shown much and, frankly, I can’t understand his campaign’s strategy, which kept him away from the debate. If he’s going to expect to get Democratic votes, he’s going to have to get into the fight and mix it up. He’s got to show he can hold his own. So far, all he’s shown is photo ops, which is fine if you’re a front-runner, but he’s not a front-runner. I’m guessing the Republicans have a bunch of internal polls that show many Latino males will go for Schwarzenegger cutting into Bustamante’s ethnic appeal, or that many new voters, Schwarzenegger fans, will come to vote. I don’t believe it. Kids typically don’t vote. I don’t think Terminator fans will vote. This was Schwarzenegger’s race to lose, but he has to prove he has the gravitas to be governor. So far I don’t think he’s shown it, but there is still time.
Tom McClintock
McClintock may actually be the key to this race. Currently, he’s hovering at 15 percent or so. Ueberroth dropped out, and that 5 percent will probably split. McClintock did well in the debate and picked up some ground, however, he’s considerably more conservative than most California voters. Even though he could pick up a few more points, he’s probably about maxed out. In other words, if he stays in and he and Schwarzenegger split the Republican vote, then Davis probably gets recalled and Cruz becomes the new governor. On the other hand, if McClintock drops out, then the conservatives will probably hold their noses and vote for Schwarzenegger who they consider much too moderate. Some will certainly stay home, but still that’s probably enough votes to put Schwarzenegger past Bustamante. However, if McClintock drops out, there are many Democrats who may decide to vote against the recall and just keep Davis in office. I sense the Democrats are less angry with Davis than they were even one or two weeks ago. McClintock also could very well be thinking, why get out? Better to run well, let either Davis or Bustamante win, take all the heat over the next two years and come in running clean next time in 2004, which is also a presidential year.
P.S.Some of our locals have already decided whom they’re backing. The L.A. Times reported Tuesday that Malibu local Ozzie Silna and his wife gave $21,200 each, a total of $42,400, to the Bustamante campaign. That gibes with a rumor that’s been floating around that, if there is a Bustamante victory, Silna, former Coastal Commission Chair Sara Wan and the Sierra Club are pushing to force out Mary Nichols as the resources secretary and replace her with Susan Jordan, longtime coastal activist, wife of Coastal Commissioner Pedro Nava, now running for the Assembly, and a close friend of Sara Wan.