Malibu Mid-Year Market Report
By Contributor, Kelly Pessis · Sat Jul 18 2026
By Kelly Pessis, Malibu Realtor
When $40,000 per square foot isn't even the record predictions from a broken crystal ball
A $35 million beachfront pied-à-terre sold this spring for nearly $40,000 per square foot — a figure that would shatter records in almost any real estate market. In Malibu, however, it wasn't even close. That distinction still belongs to last year's Grayfox sale, which reportedly closed at more than $60,000 per square foot. Welcome to Malibu real estate, where extraordinary is often just another data point.
Beyond the headline-grabbing luxury sales, the broader Malibu market tells a far more nuanced story. Inventory continues to build across much of the market, prices have softened in several segments, buyers remain cautious despite mortgage rates remaining lower than they were this time last year, and the luxury beachfront market is beginning to show signs of renewed strength. As always, forecasting what's next requires equal parts market analysis, experience... and a broken crystal ball.
The Bigger Picture
Industry sentiment in late April and early May centered around three expectations: a spring sales bump fueled by pent-up buyer demand, a change in Federal Reserve leadership, and lower interest rates. Two of those three materialized. We did see stronger sales activity, and Kevin Warsh assumed the role of Federal Reserve Chair on May 22. Interest rates, however, remained largely unchanged. While the 30-year Treasury has edged slightly higher over the past several months, mortgage rates entering July remain slightly below where they were this time last year.
Malibu Single-Family Market
For Malibu's single-family home market (all of ZIP code 90265, including both beachfront and landside properties), May brought a modest increase in sales activity, but median pricing softened. The median sale price declined 5.9% year over year to approximately $4.2 million.
Homes are also taking longer to sell, averaging 92 days on the market compared with 86 days a year ago, while sellers are typically realizing between 91% and 94% of their original list price.
May recorded 18 closed sales. Of the 24 homes that entered escrow, approximately 25% ultimately fell out of contract.
Inventory Continues to Build
Supply continues to outpace demand.
May: 13 months of inventory with 18 closed sales
June: 19 months of inventory with 15 closed sales
First week of July: 10 pending sales and an astonishing 26 months of inventory
The increase in available inventory continues to shift negotiating leverage toward buyers in many market segments.
Malibu Landside Homes
From Jan. 1 through June 30, Malibu's landside single-family market recorded 74 closed sales, including 10 off-market transactions ranging from $500,000 to $14.5 million.
The remaining 64 MLS sales averaged 93 days on the market and ranged in price from $1.255 million to $35 million.
Seven homes were reported pending, ranging from $1.395 million to $9.9 million.
Including off-market transactions, the median closed price was $1,204 per square foot. However, there was a significant difference between the median off-market sale price of just $891 per square foot and the MLS median of $1,273 per square foot, suggesting many off-market transactions reflected distressed, fire-related, or condition-driven pricing.
At the end of June, there were 177 active listings ranging from $1.65 million in Latigo Canyon to an $88 million estate on Pacific Coast Highway above Malibu Cove Colony. Active listings averaged 125 days on the market, with an average asking price of approximately $2,052 per square foot.
Malibu Condominium Market
Malibu's condominium inventory has expanded significantly.
Historically, available inventory hovered between 48 and 55 units. With the introduction of Privé—the community's first new condominium development in decades—that number has increased into the mid-60s and 70s, with 67 available units during the first week of July.
Inventory increased from a 17-month supply in May to 37 months in June.
Sales remain modest, with four closed sales in May, three in June, and two pending sales reported during the first week of July.
Luxury Beachfront Market ($10 Million and Above)
March proved to be the standout month for Malibu's ultra-luxury beachfront market, recording seven sales above $10 million—its strongest monthly performance in more than two years.
By comparison, only five additional sales closed during the combined April through June period, with no pending sales reported during the first week of July.
Among those sales was the 873-square-foot beachfront residence just east of Paradise Cove that sold off market for $35 million, or nearly $40,000 per square foot. While remarkable, it still trails the July 2025 Grayfox transaction, which reportedly achieved more than $60,000 per square foot, illustrating just how extraordinary Malibu's highest-end sales can be.
Perhaps more significant than the headline-grabbing prices is what inventory is doing.
There are currently 52 beachfront homes listed above $10 million, yet months of inventory have fallen dramatically—from nearly 80 months in September 2025 to approximately 24 months during the first week of July. That's down from 41 months in June and below the 38-month supply recorded one year ago.
If sustained, this tightening could eventually translate into increased pricing power for sellers in Malibu's luxury beachfront market.
Entry-Level Malibu
At the opposite end of the market, homes priced below $2.5 million continue to strengthen.
Months of inventory have declined into the four- to six-month range, a substantial improvement from the 26- to 29-month supply seen during the first half of 2025.
Between January and June, 21 homes sold in this category, including six off-market transactions.
Just over half sold for $1.55 million or less.
MLS-listed homes averaged 101 days on the market and achieved a median sale price of approximately $1,037 per square foot, compared with $656 per square foot for off-market transactions—a difference of roughly 58%. Much of that spread likely reflects property condition and fire-related sales.
Looking Ahead
There has been considerable discussion surrounding the roughly 4,000 newly minted SpaceX millionaires expected to emerge from recent liquidity events. Many industry observers believe a meaningful portion of that wealth could targetSouthern California's coastal and technology-corridor communities, with Malibu positioned as a potential beneficiary.
If that occurs, the greatest impact would likely be felt in the $5 million to $30 million price range, where Malibu already enjoys strong appeal among entrepreneurs and technology executives.
Whether those predictions prove accurate—or simply become another entry in my broken crystal ball—only the second half of the year will tell.
Stay tuned.